Five states voted in the Democratic presidential primary Tuesday, and Hillary Clinton won the statewide vote in four out of five. Here are a few thoughts:
Sanders’ Endurance
How long will Sanders stay in the race? Tuesday night at a rally in West Virginia, his tone and remarks almost sounded like a campaign suspension speech, up until he said his campaign would win that state in May. He claims to be in the race until the convention, even if superdelegates give Clinton the 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination. But sometimes campaigns say they plan to continue on and then drop out the next day.
In theory, Sanders can stay in the race until the convention if Clinton doesn’t win 2,383 non-superdelegates. Superdelegates are allowed to switch their allegiances at any time, so Sanders could make the case they should switch and back him. As of 10:45 PM, Clinton has won 56 percent of all non-superdelegates. If she finishes out the primaries at that rate, she’d have 2,271 delegates, about 100 short of a simple majority. It would be unprecedented to see Sanders contest the convention anyway, but certainly fun to watch.
Wait for the Count
Early in the race, it was more interesting to see who won each state than to see how many delegates each candidate was getting. We didn’t care that Bernie Sanders won 15 delegates in New Hampshire, we cared that he won and showed that Clinton wasn’t invincible. The night was basically over when the races were called for a candidate.
But now, especially with more scarce polling, the delegate counts are becoming far more important. Yes, Clinton won Maryland as soon as the polls closed. But it was more important to wait and see how much she was going to win by so we’d know how many delegates she’d win under the proportional system. Now that it’s crunch time, the “momentum” of who wins a state is less important than seeing how many delegates they will get. It makes election night last a little bit longer, but the results are more telling.
What’s next?
Fourteen states and territories still have to vote in the Democratic primaries. The biggest of those prizes is California. Its 546 delegates are 23 percent of the delegates required to clinch the Democratic nomination. Clinton has a slim lead there, but the primary is more like 53 separate primaries in each of the state’s congressional districts in addition to the statewide primary. Plus, that race isn’t until June 7, so there could be plenty of changes between now and then.
Earlier than that, Democrats will vote in Indiana, Guam and West Virginia in the first half of May. Recent polls show Clinton with a slim lead in Indiana: 3-5 percentage points. West Virginia hasn’t been polled since February but Clinton does very well in that part of the country. Remember: both of those states are proportional distribution, so slim leads for Clinton means she wouldn’t earn too many more delegates than Sanders on net.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
