Social distancing works, and we have the numbers to prove it.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s latest coronavirus model, released on Sunday, shows a downward trend in the number of confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and overall deaths, even in hard-hit areas such as New York.
In Washington, D.C., for example, the IHME report now estimates that the virus’s peak occurred last week. (Its original prediction for the Washington area was April 16.) And in Virginia, the model predicts the virus will peak in mid-April, and that by May, the state will be down in the single digits for hospitalizations and deaths if social distancing continues through May.
These revisions are encouraging, and they should prompt our officials to start thinking about next steps. Social distancing works only as long as the citizenry complies, and the longer the government drags out voluntary containment, the less sustainable it becomes.
Many of these policies need to be revised anyway. The states relied on older models and numbers, many of which have since been changed. Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, for instance, issued a stay-at-home order on March 30 that is supposed to last until June 10. That order was based on an earlier model that predicted deaths in the state would peak on May 20. Even so, the order was seen as over the top. And now that the state’s estimated peak lands in mid-April, Northam’s order looks extreme.
The Trump administration has been reevaluating the situation every two weeks, and our state leaders should do the same — if they are not doing so already. Revising policies, or at least laying out an updated plan addressing what citizens should expect, will reduce some of the long-term anxiety many people are facing while also reflecting the data more accurately.
