LONDON — President Trump shocked the British government and almost certainly drew an exasperated sigh (at least) from Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday evening, when he suggested her Brexit negotiating strategy would preclude a U.S.-U.K. trade deal.
Pursuit of that deal is a top priority for May. Speaking to The Sun newspaper, however, Trump argued that May’s outline post-Brexit relationship with the European Union would “probably kill the [prospective trade] deal.” The president said he fears May’s intended arrangement, outlined in a policy document on Thursday, would limit him to “dealing with the European Union.”
But while Trump’s statement cannot be welcome to May, it isn’t disastrous either.
May already knew that her policy document would spark alarm among rank-and-file conservative lawmakers in the House of Commons. The document was designed to give EU negotiators a sense of May’s urgency about closing a Brexit deal for future arrangements. They’ve made that urgency a precondition for further progress in negotiations and now they have it. There is little time left to reach a deal before the March 29, 2019, Brexit date, and the EU is making things as difficult as possible for the prime minister. It wants her to give yet more ground submitting its regulations and trading rules to decisive EU oversight.
So Trump’s words won’t have surprised the British government much. He fairly regards EU trade rules as entailing unfair subsidies going to European companies, and grossly insufficient market access for American companies.
But as Theresa May will almost certainly tell Trump in their meetings on Friday, Britain will ensure it has flexible trading arrangements outside of the EU. May is willing to compromise with the EU to keep access to the economies of France and Germany, but she will be unwilling — it would be trigger a Conservative revolt and topple her from power — to allow Brussels to set Britain’s trading standards with non-European countries. Trump presumably does not fully yet understand this critical detail. May can be expected to make this point to him before their joint press conference.
Trump’s words might help May for another reason.
By appearing to challenge the prime minister on British soil, the president encourages EU negotiators to believe that May is at the end of her range of flexibility. They already know she is resisting a coup from within her own party, and now Britain’s closest ally is playing tough with her. At this point the EU must either give ground to May or face the prospect of her abandoning her soft negotiating and giving rein to Brexit hardliners who want to give no ground at all to the EU.
Brussels knows this would mean a no-deal Brexit. In that case, Britain withdraws from the EU next March and simply goes its own way without new arrangements. That would be hurt the British economy in the short term, but it would also inflict great damage on multi-billion dollar EU exports to Britain.
So, Trump’s words won’t have sparked broad smiles at No. 10 Downing Street, but they might have produced an ironic smile.
I made some of these points in a Fox News interview from London earlier this evening.
