President Donald Trump’s statement explaining the military strikes he ordered on Iran detailed how the Iranian regime has “waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder targeting the United States” for 47 years. Forty-seven years. That is a long time. But why strike now?
The answer is not nuclear weapons. Trump destroyed their nuclear program in June. Trump mentioned that Iran has “long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe,” and that is true. But it is not new.
So why now?
THE US AND ISRAEL ATTACKED IRAN: WHAT WE KNOW
Relatedly, why did we strike Venezuela in January? Nicolas Maduro had been in power for over a decade before Trump authorized the operation to arrest and detain him. Yes, Maduro was directing a campaign of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking against the United States, but that had been true for years. There was no sudden escalation of that campaign in January that warranted his abduction.
So why now?
I think the answer to both questions is China.
In 2023, China announced a “all-weather strategic partnership” with Venezuela, deepening cooperation between the two, including Chinese investments in Venezuela’s oil industry and Chinese control of Venezuela’s telecommunications infrastructure. Venezuela only amounted to 4% of Chinese oil imports, but China’s investments in Venezuela gave it a key beachhead in America’s backyard.
EDITORIAL: THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC WAS ALWAYS DESTINED FOR THE ASH BIN OF HISTORY
China’s relationship with Iran goes back even further and has become deeper. China was a major arms supplier for Iran during its war with Iraq, and it has become China’s most valuable asset in the region. The countries signed a strategic partnership in 2016, increasing oil sales from Iran to China, and deepening Chinese control of Iranian infrastructure. In addition to getting 14% of their oil imports from Iran, Chinese currency helps fund Iran’s network of military proxies from Lebanon to Yemen. No one benefits more from the chaos caused by Iran’s export of terrorism than China, which is why Chinese satellite firms were so eager to help the Houthis attack U.S assets in the region.
SEAN DURNS: THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC HAD ITS CHANCE
Neither the Maduro apprehension nor the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a response to some imminent threat to U.S. national security. What they both were, are calculated strikes against China’s ability to project influence around the world.
With Iran and Venezuela weakened, China is now more isolated and dependent on Russian oil than ever. Taking out the China-friendly regimes in Iran and Venezuela may not prevent China from invading Taiwan, but they have raised the cost.
