Striking targets in at least three nations this weekend, Israel escalated conflict with Iran (without actually bombing Iran). Two factors are at play here: Iranian efforts to attack Israeli territory and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s electoral interest in appearing resolute.
The new Israeli action is significant. In Syria, Israeli warplanes killed two members of the Lebanese Hezbollah. Israel says the individuals were supporting an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plot to launch explosive-laden drones into Israel. The Israelis say that the specific Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unit responsible was the Quds Force, led by Qassem Soleimani. If true, the Quds Force was likely using Hezbollah as a deniable proxy to avoid direct links between the plot and Tehran.
In another operation in Lebanon, Israel targeted another Iranian-allied group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. In Iraq, senior Iran-aligned figures accused Israel of another air strike.
What’s going on here?
First, it’s important to note that these strikes flow with standing Israeli security strategy. While Israel is relatively tolerant of Hezbollah activities in Lebanon and Syria, it is unwilling to allow Iran or any other group the uncontested ability to hit Israeli territory with high-threat capabilities. That means Israel striking drone, missile, or other forces wherever they are seen to threaten Israel. Desperate to pressure President Trump into reducing sanctions on Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard likely regard attacking Israel as a way to induce Trump to yield in fear of new escalation.
But the strikes in Iraq, of which there appear to have been two over the past seven days, are especially interesting. Iraq is a favored playground of the Quds Force and other Iranian elements, but Israel is well aware of U.S. interests in maintaining the fragile balance of power in Baghdad. While the Trump administration is reflexively pro-Netanyahu, it likely would have sought compelling Israeli evidence for why the strikes inside Iraq were necessary.
All this said, Netanyahu was likely also motivated by domestic politics there. With new elections scheduled for Sept. 17, Netanyahu wants to double down on his presentation of strong leadership. Facing increasing challenges from a newly aligned conservative party and a center-left alliance headed by a former top general, Netanyahu wants to show himself as the supreme security candidate.
In short, Iranian threats are forcing Netanyahu’s hand in a manner politically beneficial to his premiership.
