The three least popular Democratic senators have two things in common— they’re up for re-election this fall, and they represent states President Trump won by double-digit margins in 2016.
Released Wednesday, Morning Consult’s quarterly survey of senator approval ratings, conducted among registered voters from April to June, found the three least popular senators are all Republicans: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, and John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona. They’re followed by Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Joe Manchin, D-W.V. Rand Paul, R-Ky., Bob Menendez, D-N.J., and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., round out the bottom ten.
McCaskill, Heitkamp, and Manchin are all on the ballot in deep-red states this November. Trump’s 19-point win in Missouri was modest compared to his more than 36 and 42-point victories in North Dakota and West Virginia respectively. McCaskill’s disapproval is at 44 percent while her approval is at 40 percent, according to Morning Consult. For Heitkamp, that ratio is dead even at 44 to 44 percent (the margin of error among the poll’s North Dakota sample was 4 percent). Manchin is slightly above water at 43 to 45 percent.
Morning Consult points out that three of the Senate’s vulnerable Democrats, Heitkamp included, experienced drops in their net approval ratings over the second quarter. Jon Tester’s, D-Mont., dipped nine points, while Heitkamp’s and Bill Nelson’s, D-Fla., dropped by eight.
Republican Dean Heller of Nevada’s disapproval-to-approval rating stands at 40 to 37 percent. Heller is also up for re-election in the fall.
It’s worth noting Trump has visited all three of the least popular Democratic incumbents’ states in recent weeks. For Republicans, the poll obviously brings welcome news, but even if the GOP makes gains in the Senate, losing control of the House could still prevent Trump from implementing much of his agenda going forward. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Democrats’ odds of regaining the House at more than 50-50 for the first time this cycle on Tuesday.
But it’s a reminder that red-state Democrats are struggling amid the national party’s blanket calls to resist Trump. Such sentiments may boost turnout in blue states, but they could inadvertently have the same effect on Republican voters in red states, while also peeling moderate voters away from someone like McCaskill. It’s a tricky balancing act, and judging by Morning Consult’s new findings, with less than four months until Election Day, Democrats still don’t seem to have found the right approach.
