Twenty-five years ago, there really was no such thing as an “exurb.” There were cities and suburbs, but beyond that, there was countryside. They were spotted with a few long-distance commuters, but generally these regions were under-populated and politically unimportant. But times have changed.
The migration to these outer suburbs began in the early 1980s and, by the mid-1990s, counties such as Loudoun, Prince William, Stafford and Spotsylvania (in Virginia) and Anne Arundel and Frederick (in Maryland) had become major population centers. The exurbs changed the balance of power in the region and, while they have impacted the politics of both Maryland and Virginia, it?s in the commonwealth that their political clout has been the strongest.
These communities are predominantly white, have more children per household than families in the inner suburbs and often have a large number of stay-at-home moms. They are also more likely to attend church. Most importantly, they are all much more likely to vote Republican.
In the past 10 to 15 years, the Republican Party?s growth in the commonwealth can be traced to its success in the outer suburbs. Without the exurbs, the GOP?s dominance in-state politics would be at risk. But through a combination of some inner suburban GOP strongholds, the conservative vote in rural areas, and most of the exurbs has given them a lock on Virginia politics.
Until recently the Democrats had accepted that fate ? that is, until 2005. That?s when they remembered that a majority of these new residents in the outer suburbs are long-distance commuters for whom transportation is a hot issue. The issue is so important that, in 2005, an unprecedented number of these normally conservative voters were willing to overlook party differences and vote for Tim Kaine thanks, in part, to his transportation ideas.
If properly played, the transportation issue could well net the Democrats some gains in the 2007 General Assembly elections. But, right now, the question the Democrats are asking each other is, “Can their success in the outer suburbs with Tim Kaine in 2005 be leveraged in their quest to unseat George Allen?”
Probably not. While Allen may not have the poll numbers he wants right now, he still has several advantages in this race. This election will have a national focus and the issues that helped the Democrats win in 2005 won?t necessarily be transferable to this year?s race.
The key for Allen, and for any GOP candidate statewide, is to keep Virginia?s conservative base together. In 2005, Kaine persuaded a significant chunk of that base to defect. Allen will have to make sure this doesn?t happen again. One way to do this is to keep the focus on the conservative cultural issues, which resonate in the traditional communities of the outer suburbs.
The GOP has been given a lucky break and that?s an amendment on this year?s ballot to ban gay marriage. It?s all but guaranteed to bring conservative Christians ? many of whom live in the exurbs ? out to vote in November.
That doesn?t, however, mean that the Democratic cause in the exurbs is completely lost. These counties are changing. The conservative strength is slowly being diluted with an influx of liberal voters, minorities and immigrants. But the demographic changes aren?t big enough yet to significantly alter the 2006 election.
Though Democrats managed to find a way to win in a state election by focusing on transportation, it?s going to take more than a local issue to break the GOP hold on the exurbs in 2006.
David S. Kerr is a federal employee, occasional writer and political activist in Fredericksburg.
