On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin of Russia approved a $2.8 billion deal to upgrade 10 TU-160 strategic bombers.
Russia’s mission-focus equivalent of the B-2 U.S. Air Force strategic bomber, the TU-160 is designed to penetrate deep inside enemy territory and destroy command and control structures. The problem for Russia, however, is that the TU-160 is nowhere near as capable as the B-2 or even the U.S. B-1B bomber. In turn, while this modernization deal might make the TU-160 more capable, it will not put the aircraft in a position to penetrate deep inside a capable adversary’s battlespace.
Were, for example, Russia to attempt to use any upgraded TU-160s to strike significant U.S. targets, they would need a very significant fighter escort complement for any chance of success. Even the most advanced of Russia’s strike-fighter complement, the SU-57, would struggle to achieve this penetration against U.S. F-22s or F-15s that were launched to defend U.S. interests.
Between the large price tag of $2.8 billion and the prospective lack of utility, this military decision invites the question: Why is an impoverished Russia spending its limited money this way?
After all, while Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is very low compared to most advanced nations, it has a significant budget deficit, weak capital infrastructure, and an imploding demographic base. It doesn’t have money to blow on prestige projects such as this one.
If he were a perfect master-realist, Putin would allocate defense spending to areas that produce an outsized tactical and strategic opportunity.
The TU-160 ain’t that.
So while Russia’s investment in a capable and U.S.-threatening air defense network reflects its more serious military capabilities, we should pay close heed to this TU-160 upgrade. Because it gives us a window into Putin’s mind. It shows us that sometimes the Russian leader seeks the adorned appearance of power via the proxy of prestige more than he seeks actual power. Ultimately, this procurement choice reminds us that Putin is only a man.
Aggressive and highly manipulative, yes.
A master of intelligence and covert action, yes.
But also a man; flawed, ego-driven, and vulnerable to manipulation.
