It’s not about drug interdiction, it’s about intimidating Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro.
That’s the top line to the new U.S. military deployment to interdict drug smugglers in the Caribbean. Announced by President Trump on Wednesday, the plan will double the U.S. military assets in the American part of the Southern Hemisphere.
Yet, we shouldn’t give too much weight to Trump’s claim that this is about stopping Maduro’s supply of drugs to our shores. That’s the excuse to gain the buy-in of the 22 other nations supporting this effort. What’s really going on here is that Trump is trying to increase pressure on Maduro to step down. The new deployments, especially the Navy destroyers being sent south, are designed to make Maduro believe America will interdict his oil exports or even overthrow his regime if he persists in holding onto power.
Why are the drugs a sideshow?
Well, put simply, because the U.S. war on drugs is long-running and long unsuccessful. Vast quantities of cocaine and other illegal narcotics continue to enter America every day. And, while U.S. counterdrug forces deserve credit for their courage and their seizures, their impact is inherently limited by the voracious American demand for drugs. In turn, no one in the Pentagon and the White House seriously believes that sending a few more ships, planes, and drones into the Caribbean is going to win the drug war suddenly. Or even move the needle significantly.
But, as I say, that’s not the point here. The point is to scare Maduro.
In that regard, the timing of this announcement is quite striking. After all, it follows the U.S. announcement earlier this week of a new deal for Maduro and Venezuela. Offering sanctions relief as the carrot, that deal would require Maduro to step down and accept a ruling transitional government made up of five ministers in his place. Fresh elections would then be held, with international election monitors ensuring the probity of results.
But the gambit hasn’t paid off. Maduro has rejected the deal and is instead boosting his harassment of legitimate interim president Juan Guaido.
So, while these deployments are designed to deter Maduro from attacking Guaido’s person, they’re also intended as a response to his rejection of the U.S. offer. The Trump administration wants Maduro to believe that his continuing intransigence will lead only to a more painful fate.
Considering the justifiably limited appetite in Washington for military intervention in Venezuela, however, I’d suggest that Maduro still retains the cards. If and until Cuba abandons him and the military flips against him, the dictator will continue to sit relatively secure in power.
