The day is here: Super Bowl LIV, the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Francisco 49ers. One team will host the Lombardi Trophy, while the other will spend the offseason dreaming about what might have been. Here’s everything you need to know about the big game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
Quarterbacks
Relax, this one ain’t close.
While San Francisco is ranked 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense and Jimmy Garoppolo can make the big throws when needed, Patrick Mahomes is easily the best player on the field and, by extension, the better of the two at the position.
Garoppolo has only attempted 27 passes combined in two playoff games and is averaging 103.5 passing yards per game. That doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opponents.
Mahomes, on the other hand, has thrown for over 360 yards per game with eight passing touchdowns and no interceptions while completing nearly 66% of his passes.
ESPN’s Adam Teicher wrote that Mahomes is 5-4 in his career during games in which the Chiefs have trailed by at least 10 points while the rest of the league has only won 14% of such games (67-405-3) during that time. In those four losses, the Chiefs still scored 40, 51, 31, and 31 points. The Chiefs are 27-8 in games that Mahomes started. What’s even more impressive is that the Chiefs haven’t lost a single game by more than one score with him under center.
Fun fact from Teicher: Mahomes’s 35 starts without losing by more than seven points is the second-longest such streak to start a career among Super Bowl-era quarterbacks, behind Russell Wilson’s 38.
Teicher went further and showcased how good Mahomes’s numbers are when his team is trailing: “When his team is trailing, Mahomes is first in QBR (87) and TD percentage (8.7), second in yards per attempt (8.6) and third in passing touchdowns (33).”
It is worth noting that the 49ers are excellent at converting on third downs. That’s definitely a product of good play-calling, but it’s also a product of good quarterback play. The 49ers rank fifth in the NFL in third down conversions, while the Chiefs are first.
No contest here. Mahomes, the 2018 MVP, will easily be the better quarterback on the field in Miami.
Running Backs
The 49ers have the NFL’s second-best rushing offense, and Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida are the reason why. No team has scored more rushing touchdowns this season, and San Francisco is averaging over 235 yards per game on the ground in the playoffs. During the regular season, the 49ers averaged over 144 rushing yards per game.
While Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy can both be effective backs, they’re not the primary options in the offense. Everyone knows that the Chiefs offense goes through Mahomes first, and the running backs serve more to keep defenses honest. As a matter of fact, Mahomes has led the team in rushing in both of its playoff games. He had 106 rushing yards and a touchdown in wins over Houston and Tennessee while averaging 7.1 yards per carry. He’s been both efficient and dangerous.
The 49ers easily have the edge when it comes to running backs.
Receivers
Like the previous two categories, this one isn’t close.
Because of Mahomes’s brilliance, the Chiefs have a stable of receivers that can singlehandedly take over a game. Tyreek Hill headlines the group, but tight end Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman can all cause headaches for the 49ers.
While tight end George Kittle is a matchup nightmare and Deebo Samuel has shown incredible flashes of potential, the 49ers receivers pale in comparison to the depth and strength that Kansas City is putting out there.
Advantage: Kansas City Chiefs.
Defense
San Francisco has the NFL’s top passing defense. The 49ers led the league in passing yards allowed per game and yards allowed per pass attempt. They also have three interceptions in their two playoff games. Richard Sherman will be absolutely critical in this game. If he plays like the lockdown corner that he is and keeps Hill contained, that will be huge for the 49ers. There is a big drop-off between Kelce and Hill and the rest of the dangerous Chiefs receiving corps.
Where the Chiefs will be able to really hurt them is if Mahomes can take off and run if the 49ers get too aggressive with their blitzes, especially down the middle of the field.
The 49ers excel at disrupting timing and getting into the backfield. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to sacks and tackles for loss. They’ve got nine sacks and 14 tackles for loss in their wins against Minnesota and Green Bay and have forced four fumbles. They’ll need to continue to make Mahomes uncomfortable. While Mahomes is incredible at improvising, extending plays, and making incredible plays out of nothing, I’d rather have him on the move than settled and able to work through his progressions.
The Chiefs have climbed out of deficits in both of their playoff games and can ill-afford to fall behind against a team with a defense and offense like San Francisco’s. They did a nice job on Derrick Henry, holding him to just 69 yards on 19 carries. Prior to that, he had been borderline unstoppable in upset wins over New England and Baltimore. The Chiefs have proven that they have the ability to stop a great running game. They’ll be tested once again because of San Francisco’s second-ranked rushing attack.
The Chiefs have piled up eight sacks and 12 tackles for loss in their two playoff game, and while they haven’t forced an interception, they also have a forced fumble and fumble recovery.
While both the Chiefs and the 49ers have top-10 scoring defenses, the 49ers have the NFL’s best passing defense. That’s critical against a team that throws as much as the Chiefs do.
On defense, I’m giving the edge to San Francisco.
Special Teams
The Chiefs get the edge here because of kicker Harrison Butker. If you include the playoffs, the veteran has made 35 of his 39 field goal attempts this season and has converted his last 14 in a row. The Miami Herald noted that three of those four misses were from at least 50 yards.
While Robbie Gould has been a perfect 5-for-5 in the playoffs for San Francisco and drilled a 54-yarder, he was just over 74% in the regular season and missed all four of his kicks from outside of 50 feet.
Formula For Success
The formula for the 49ers should be very simple: Run the ball well and play great defense. That’s what this team does very, very well. On offense, they need to establish the run and keep the defense honest down the middle with Kittle and Samuel. As I said in my AFC/NFC Championship game previews, it’s important for Garoppolo to be efficient and take care of the football. There’s no need to force anything. On defense, the 49ers need to be disruptive and cause chaos up front. If they can pressure Mahomes and make him uncomfortable, they might be able to force him to make some bad or high-risk throws that they can take advantage of.
The formula for the Chiefs is also pretty simple: Stop the run and ride Mahomes. If they can prevent Mostert and Coleman from taking over, chewing up clock and keeping the ball out of Mahomes’s hands, they’ll be in good shape on defense.
On offense, you have to just let Mahomes do Mahomes-type things. He’ll have to make play after play after play because the 49ers defensive front is incredibly talented and will likely frequently flush him out of the pocket. Mahomes will also be called upon to pick up third downs with his feet. He led the team in rushing in both of their playoff games and had an epic touchdown at the end of the first half against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship.
Mahomes can do it all, and Kansas City will need him to do just that.
The spread: Kansas City (-1.0)
The pick: While Patrick Mahomes is the best player on the field, I think San Francisco has the better defense and the better overall team. I’m taking the 49ers to win their sixth Super Bowl — and their first since 1994.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
