It’s probably no coincidence that Republicans have been talking more about tax reform’s “phase two” in recent days, alarmed after Democrats flipped a Trump-friendly congressional district in Pennsylvania with a candidate who opposed the landmark legislation passed late last year.
The bill’s favorability seems to be growing, leading Republicans to argue it’ll boost their appeal with voters in the midterms. But Conor Lamb’s victory in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District last week dealt a blow to that narrative.
Just sixteen months ago, President Trump won PA-18 by 20 points. Much of the party’s messaging efforts in the district were focused on selling tax reform to voters on the assumption it would be a major asset. Lamb called the bill a “giveaway” to wealthy individuals and large corporations. Republicans, Lamb contended, “[gave] tax relief to their donors, to the 1 percent and big corporations.”
On Monday, Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., revealed Republicans on Capitol Hill have had “real talks” recently about rolling out the second phase of tax reform as soon as April 15. Chairman of the Freedom Caucus, Meadows hopes any forthcoming legislation will make the first bill’s individual tax cuts permanent.
But take a look at what he said on Fox News on Monday:
That seems to be an important acknowledgment that relying on the passage of popular tax reform legislation is not powerful enough on its own to drive turnout or save vulnerable incumbents in the fall. When I talked to Republican Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson last week about what he’s hearing from Republican voters, he echoed Meadows in pointing to immigration, though Nicholson said it’s one of two topics he hears most about, with the other being Obamacare.
For Republicans facing the threat of a blue wave, taking further action on tax reform is politically smart, yes, because it will likely be seen as positive by voters, but also more simply because it involves taking action. And that means it can’t be the only policy area in which action is taken. Congressional Republicans have plenty of understandable challenges obstructing them from implementing their agenda, but there’s an expectation among voters that when you control all three branches of government, legislation will get passed to address the problems you campaigned on fixing. Immigration and healthcare are at the top of that list.
Some voters may give Republicans a pass for failing to find consensus on an Obamacare repeal-and-replace bill, but if no serious progress is made on immigration either, mounting frustration and ailing confidence in the party’s ability to function could keep voters home in November or persuade independents to vote Democrat.
One lesson of Lamb’s unlikely victory is that campaigning on the passage of tax reform legislation (admittedly an impressive feat) may not be as powerful as Republicans hoped. But as they work to push new legislation, they should also seek to fully appreciate the effect that perceived dysfunction in government could have on voters who expected them to deliver on campaign promises.
