Just last week, Donald Trump was once again hinting he’d be open to a third-party bid for the presidency. The brokered convention talk seemed sufficient to justify the threats.
Then Trump pledged at Tuesday night’s debate, “I am totally committed to the Republican Party.” He even expressed respect for his rivals for the GOP nomination.
A few days ago, Trump at the very least viewed an independent candidacy as important leverage over a GOP establishment he feared was moving against him. Now he’s swearing off it. What changed?
First, whatever the Republican National Committee said to reassure Trump and Ben Carson that a contested convention wasn’t a conspiracy against anti-establishment candidates — the RNC reportedly met with Trump’s campaign — seems to have worked.
Second, Trump’s lead in the Republican race seems more or less secure. He is competing in Iowa, although that remains his most precarious early state. But he remains ahead nationally and most everywhere else. Two polls this week have even shown him breaking 40 percent among national GOP voters.
Criticism from Republican leaders like House Speaker Paul Ryan don’t seem to have dented his numbers yet. Why complain about fair play when you are winning?
Finally, Trump has begun the process of qualifying for state primary ballots. Some big states, like Texas and Ohio, won’t let him run as an independent or other party candidate now that he’s qualified as a Republican. This limits the effectiveness of bolting. (Though there are questions about how some of these sore loser laws would fare in court and John Anderson managed to appear on the all 50 state ballots as an independent candidate in 1980 despite running in most of the Republican primaries that year.)
Trump always reserves the right to unilaterally declare he’s being treated unfairly. But as long as he’s winning the game, don’t expect him to take his marbles and go home.
