Some weeks the NFL can be a bit predictable, and sometimes the Las Vegas Raiders upset the defending Super Bowl champions. That and my unwarranted vote of confidence in Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn (since fired) is why my picks went 1-2 last week. But overall this season, my picks are still 10-5, both straight up and against the spread.
So when I say these are three games you can’t miss this week and give you my picks to win, you can trust me!
Cleveland Browns (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0), 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
The Cleveland Browns are off to their best start since 1994 and haven’t beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh in 17 years. Pretty unbelievable. The Browns have been scoring at a fantastic clip. They’re averaging more than 31 points per game. That’s the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield is hurting but will still play this Sunday. Odell Beckham Jr. might not be close to 100% either since he had an illness and was sent home from practice as a precaution on Thursday. While Nick Chubb is out, Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson have been picking up the slack. Hunt is averaging five yards per carry, and Johnson is averaging a fantastic six yards per touch.
Mayfield is completing less than 62% of his passes. He’s not throwing for a lot of yards per game and has thrown for nine touchdowns and four interceptions. He certainly has plenty of options offensively with Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper, but he needs to make better decisions with the ball.
Pittsburgh’s defense is really good. While they’ve only played four games and not five, no team has allowed fewer yards in the NFL this season. They have the NFL’s sixth-best scoring defense, are tied for the league lead with 20 sacks, are tied for third in interceptions with six, are forcing quarterbacks to complete less than 60% of their passes, and are holding opponents to 3.3 yards per carry and just 64 yards per game on the ground.
Ben Roethlisberger has remained healthy this season and has thrown 10 touchdown passes with just one interception. He hasn’t had to throw as much as he has in years past thanks to the productivity of running back James Conner. He has run for three touchdowns and is averaging nearly five yards per carry. The Steelers are averaging nearly 139 yards per game running the ball and have the 10th-best scoring offense.
Chase Claypool became the first rookie in NFL history with three receiving touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in the same game. He and JuJu Smith-Schuster form a dynamic duo at wide receiver, and Eric Ebron can be a force over the middle.
One other storyline is that this contest is a bit of a grudge match stemming from last year’s ugly incident where Myles Garrett assaulted Mason Rudolph. Both teams can say this is just another game, but neither of these teams and players have forgotten what happened.
The line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.0)
The pick: The Steelers have an elite defense like the Colts, but a much better offense. I like Pittsburgh to win and cover the four-point spread against a team they’ve historically owned in the Steel City.
Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2), 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
After a bit of an embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears last week where Tom Brady forgot what down it was, the Bucs are looking to rebound against one of the NFL’s last remaining undefeated teams.
Tampa Bay’s defense has improved since last season. The Bucs currently have the NFL’s eighth-best scoring defense, but will they be able to contain the NFL’s top scoring offense? Green Bay is scoring 38 points per game. They’ve beaten the Saints and Falcons from the NFC South and are looking to go 3-for-3. It’s important to note that the Packers already won on the road in New Orleans. Many teams, like Tampa Bay earlier this season, leave that stadium as losers, but the Packers got the W.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for more than 300 yards per game, is completing over 70% of his passes, and has thrown 13 touchdowns without an interception. Aaron Jones is having a monster season as well. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has four rushing touchdowns. He’s also averaging nine yards per catch this season and has a pair of touchdown receptions.
The Bucs have the NFL’s 11th-best scoring offense. Brady is having a good season but not a great one. Together, Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette are averaging five yards per carry. Brady and the Bucs have an incredibly dynamic offense when it comes to the receivers and tight ends. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are capable of beating teams single-handedly, but Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate are also viable options.
Green Bay is scoring on just over 64% of its offensive drives. That’s more than 8% better than Las Vegas, the second-best team. Tampa Bay is 23rd in terms of yards per play on offense, 12th in passing yards per game, and 25th in rushing yards per game.
It’s hard to imagine the Bucs defense completely shutting down the Packers, so Brady and the offense are going to have to keep putting points on the board.
The line: Green Bay Packers (-1.0)
The pick: With the Packers coming off a bye week and Rodgers continuing to silence his critics, I’m taking the Packers to win and cover the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) at Buffalo Bills (4-1), 5:00 p.m. ET Monday on FOX
Both teams are coming off of losses last week. The fourth quarter is what separates the Chiefs from 4-1 and being undefeated. The Raiders scored 16 unanswered points and had fantastic execution in the final quarter. The really big difference in the game was time of possession. The Raiders controlled the ball for over 10 more minutes than the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Bills got embarrassed on Tuesday Night Football by the Titans. Ryan Tannehill had a fantastic game and really took apart the Bills defense. Surprisingly, the Bills had more total yards and led in time of possession. Josh Allen threw two picks, and the Bills ended the game with three turnovers.
Tannehill threw for 195 yards, completed 75% of his passes, and tossed three touchdown passes while adding another score on the ground. You think Patrick Mahomes can do better? I certainly can.
The Bills and Chiefs both have top-five passing offenses, they’re both top-three in third-down conversion rate, and top-10 in red zone offense. The Chiefs have the ninth-best scoring offense while the Bills are 12th.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has had a decent season and is about to get some backup in the form of Le’Veon Bell. The Chiefs aren’t afraid to use Tyreek Hill or Mahomes to do damage on the ground either. Travis Kelce, Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman are nearly impossible to shut down completely. The Bills will have their hands full trying to contain them.
While Stefon Diggs has been a standout since coming to Buffalo, Cole Beasley and John Brown will need to step up their games on Monday evening. The running game has been pretty disappointing though. The Bills are averaging fewer than four yards per carry. Allen has thrown for 14 touchdowns and nearly 1,600 yards. He’s having an incredible season and will need to have an incredible game for the Bills to keep up with the Chiefs offense.
One of the bigger differences between the two teams is that the Chiefs have the seventh-best scoring defense while the Bills are tied for 21st. The Bills are 26th in red zone defense and are allowing teams to score on 71.4% of their trips to the red zone. The Chiefs are middle of the pack but much better comparatively.
The Chiefs are tied for third in the NFL in interceptions while the Bills only have two through their first five games. The Bills are 24th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. The Chiefs are sixth. While the offenses will get a lot of the headlines, keep an eye on the defenses.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-4.0)
The pick: I think the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will pick themselves off the mat quicker than the Bills. I’m taking the Chiefs to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
