The Iowa Democratic Party says Hillary Clinton is the winner of their 2016 caucuses. Here are a few brief thoughts on the Iowa Democratic caucuses.
Clinton Escapes
A loss in the Iowa caucuses would have been a major blow to Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. Clinton has been losing in New Hampshire polls, but now she can weather a loss in New Hampshire without too much embarrassment to her campaign. To be upset in Iowa and lose the first two major states probably would have given Sanders front-runner status for the Democratic nomination. The only person to ever win a presidential nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire? Bill Clinton.
In 2008, Barack Obama upset Clinton in Iowa and then surged to lead the final day of New Hampshire polling. In the end, Clinton won New Hampshire anyway, by 2.6 points even though polls predicted she would lose by more than eight points. Clinton’s victory wasn’t as big as the four-point victory polls had predicted, but it’s enough to keep the news cycle in her favor.
Polling Accuracy
The polls predicted a close Clinton victory, and we got one by the slimmest of margins. The final RealClearPolitics polling average gave Clinton a four-point edge over Sanders. Clinton led the Iowa polling average for all but one day of polling. Even though Sanders finished within one percentage point, much closer than expected, a win is a win for Clinton.
Compare 2016 polls to 2008 on the Democratic side, when it was a three-way back and forth race between Clinton, Obama and John Edwards in Iowa. Clinton led from early August until one month before the caucus. She finished third after polls predicted she would finish second.
O’Malley Done
Martin O’Malley’s last best hope, that somehow the polls were massively underestimating his support by at least 35 percent, was squashed Monday night. Even after four debates up against Clinton and Sanders, the cavalry isn’t coming for the former Maryland governor. He finished at less than 1 percent of the vote Monday. Iowa’s caucus system diminishes that support some by making supporters for “unviable” candidates switch to “viable” ones, but the point remains: Iowa was the proverbial final nail in the coffin of the O’Malley campaign.
Still, there are two reasons O’Malley could have decided to stay in the race. The Democratic National Committee finally agreed to sanction more primary debates. He might have thought voters would start to change their minds after the fifth, sixth or seventh debates. Second, O’Malley might have thought a bombshell in the Hillary Clinton email scandal is coming in the next month or two. In that case, if all of Clinton’s supporters switched to become O’Malley supporters, he might have had a chance. Evidently, that didn’t seem likely to O’Malley, who officially dropped out Monday.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
