The voters have spoken, and what they made clear is that this is a very closely divided country.
President-elect Joe Biden leads President Trump by approximately 3.5% of 5 million votes, yet Republicans are in a good position to retain control of the Senate despite being outspent by over $300 million. They received 2.5 million more votes than Democrats in the 35 Senate races (not including Georgia’s two runoff elections scheduled for Jan. 5). In the House, Republicans gained seats and nearly displaced Democrats’ majorities. At the state level, Republicans gained one governorship, flipped the state Senate and House in New Hampshire, and picked up a net 24 state Senate and 163 state House seats nationwide.
Even the presidential race comes down to a much smaller number of votes than the national popular vote would suggest. In four states, the margin is less than 1 point. With the country likely to remain divided for the near future, campaign strategists must be looking for any advantage to gain just a few more votes. Yet one thing rarely mentioned is the possibility of expanding the voter population.
One group of legal voters that is rarely thought of is overseas voters. According to the Federal Voting Assistance Program, there are 2.9 million U.S. citizens living abroad who are legal voters, but less than 5% actually vote.
In 2012, I ran a nonpartisan organization that streamlined the process for overseas voters in Israel to vote in the U.S. elections. Voting from overseas is not very difficult. But without an organized campaign that gets overseas voters interested in the election, reminding them that they have the right to vote, most of them won’t exercise their right to vote.
Campaign professionals should seriously look at investing in overseas voters. When we managed to increase voter turnout in Israel to 50% in 2012, the voter registration campaign looked similar to most traditional turnout efforts in the U.S. — robust canvassing, doorbelling, events, debates, call-banks, digital and social media, plus other events designed to create a sense of community for Americans living overseas. We conducted July 4 barbecues, Sept. 11 memorial events, Little League games, and events at sports bars to watch the Olympics and football.
The only significant difference between voter registration drives in the U.S. and overseas is that you must do everything twice. Overseas voters must first request their ballot be mailed to them, and then, once they receive it (or fill out a federal write-in absentee ballot), they must actually cast their vote.
What issues do overseas voters care about? Most issues will track quite similarly to voters stateside, with the exception of a heightened interest in foreign affairs (especially in Israel). Remember, U.S. citizens living abroad still pay federal and state income taxes. Overseas voters will typically oppose any tax increase as they won’t benefit from the “tax bribery.” They won’t be swayed to fork up more of their hard-earned income in return for promises of improved schools, roads, healthcare, or even a new library, as they will never use them. Overseas voters can’t be paid off — they only get stuck with the bill, which makes them more likely to want to vote.
One of the results of the 2020 campaign has been the increased awareness of the potential as well as the pitfalls of voting by mail and the necessity of counting all legally cast ballots. Many states allow ballots to be counted after Election Day, which can change the course of elections. This recognition has the potential to encourage more overseas voters to want to vote, especially as more and more states appear so competitive.
If future campaigns will make the small investments necessary to engage this untapped voter pool, overseas voters could make the difference in many future elections.
Elie Pieprz is a U.S. political consultant living in Israel and was national director for iVoteIsrael in 2012.
