Going into Election Day, the race is a lot closer than it seemed just a few weeks ago. Though Hillary Clinton has the edge, Donald Trump is close enough so that any combination of polling failure or a late break toward Trump undetected in the last available public polls could elect him to the presidency. With that said, I still think Clinton has an edge in a critical mass of states to win.
There are some states where Trump has closed the gap, but probably not enough: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Maine, Virginia, New Mexico. At the same time, Georgia and Arizona, once considered winnable for Clinton, now look out of reach. Trump also looks poised to pick up wins in Ohio and Iowa, which President Obama carried both times.
That leaves three states where each candidate has a chance to win: Florida, Nevada and North Carolina. But having looked at the numbers, that leaves me believing that Clinton is in good position to win Florida and Nevada, but that the drop in African-American turnout in the state will likely hinder her ability to win North Carolina.
Below you will find my full electoral map prediction:
