Lebanon continues to buckle under the strain of two opposing but equally immovable forces. Violence is escalating, and the potential for serious loss of life is growing.
On one side are the protesters. Infuriated by the government’s failure to address embedded corruption and cronyism and improve poor services, the protest movement is demanding a technocratic caretaker government take power. Multisectarian in identity, protesters hope technocrats will govern without resorting to the current divvying up of sectarian interests.
This matters, because Lebanon’s current situation is one in which the three major sectarian blocs, Sunni, Shia, and Christian, are each allocated powerful ministries from which they can divert patronage to their supporters. The problem, here, is that although this system binds the political class to a degree of consensus in favor of peace, it also fosters deep corruption at the expense of the public purse.
Making matters worse, Lebanon’s already decrepit finances are being hampered by the refusal of outside powers to continue extending loans. They fear that if Lebanon falls into another revolution, their loans will be gone forever.
But if the people are certainly making their voices heard, it’s not at all clear that the government has any interest in listening to them.
While erstwhile reform-minded prime minister Saad Hariri resigned in recognition of protester demands, no alternative premier has been found. Hariri has now again been selected by parliament to form a new government. But he has two problems.
First, the Lebanese Hezbollah and its Amal ally are refusing to allow a technocratic government to take power. It knows that the government would sever its patronage networks and put Lebanese interests before those of its ally, Iran. Toward that end, it appears to be behind President Michel Aoun’s decision on Monday to suspend his direction to Hariri to form a new government that might placate some protester concerns.
The second problem is simpler: Namely that Hariri is weak. Lacking the courageous charisma of his father, who was murdered by Syria and Hezbollah in 2005, Hariri doesn’t have what it takes to go head-to-head with Hezbollah and effect real change.
That leaves us where we are now: with rising protests, unbending political elites, and increasing risk of serious bloodshed.
