On the surface, Lindsey Graham’s increasingly likely 2016 presidential campaign doesn’t make much sense. Every four years, an important senator — and the South Carolina Republican certainly counts as one — runs for president without much chance of success.
You can see why a House backbencher like Dennis Kucinich or Bob Dornan might take a flier on the primaries. But what did Richard Lugar, Orrin Hatch, Bob Graham or Chris Dodd have to gain? (At least Joe Biden got the vice presidency out of his hopeless 2008 campaign.)
In Graham’s case, however, there might be a little bit more to it. The Palmetto State senator initially seemed to be considering a run for the White House so he could argue foreign policy with Rand Paul in the Republican primary debates (Graham offered a preview in Iowa over the weekend).
But with so many top-tier Republicans backing away from the Iraq War, including eloquent hawks like Marco Rubio, there is an opening for a candidate who will offer a full-throated defense of the Bush Doctrine. John Bolton, another possibility (albeit one more skeptical of democracy promotion than Graham), took a pass on the 2016 contest.
Jeb Bush, Rubio and even Ted Cruz obviously aren’t Rand Paul on foreign policy. That said, Bush has to distance himself from his brother and both Rubio and Cruz have demonstrated they are not quick to embrace military interventions that aren’t favored by the base. That can’t be said of Graham.
Case in point: Graham backed President Obama when he wanted to bomb Syria in 2013. When the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted on the idea, Rubio was against it. Cruz went a step further, arguing that the proposed bombing campaign would make us “al Qaeda’s air force.”
Graham also offers a bit of a contrast with Rubio on immigration. Rubio has backed off his support for the Gang of Eight bill. Graham has faced down conservative primary challengers calling him “Grahamnesty” and is therefore more inclined to fight on this issue.
I think Graham exaggerates the significance of his primary victories over weak opponents (who still managed to get a combined 43 percent of the vote against him in 2014). He’s also as likely to undermine Rubio as Paul. It will also be interesting to see what impact he’ll have on the South Carolina primary. But Graham is an aggressive debater who likes a good fight in domestic politics as much as abroad, so his campaign is no surprise.
