Facing China’s systemic challenge to the U.S.-led liberal international order, President Biden is right to double down on the so-called Quad partnership.
As Japan’s Kyodo news outlet accurately reported on Sunday, Biden wants to organize a video summit with the leaders of Australia, India, and Japan. While such a summit would be more symbolic than policy-focused, it would send an important early signal that the Biden administration intends to build upon this important new alliance structure. The signal will be an especially valuable boost to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In recent months, Australia has suffered an escalating Chinese trade war. Beijing’s economic campaign is designed to persuade Morrison that he should abandon his support for U.S. security policies in the Asia-Pacific or face economic gloom. Similarly, India has suffered People’s Liberation Army maneuvers designed to degrade Modi’s credibility as a nationalist leader capable of turning his nation into a major geopolitical actor.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo deserves significant credit for the Quad’s formation. That said, Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan will hope that an early Quad leaders summit sends a new signal to Morrison, Modi, and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, and indirectly to China. Namely, that America is not an idle ally. This bears note in light of the Trump administration’s unfortunate tolerance for China’s trade war against Australia. Sullivan believes that a strengthened understanding of American reliability will advance a corollary commitment to deal with China’s growing power and ambition. With time, Washington hopes, the Quad’s credibility will attract other allies such as Britain.
It’s a bold but credible aspiration.
Australia and Japan are linchpin American allies with capable militaries, and a shared commitment to Asia-Pacific stability. India is the world’s most populous democracy, with an increasingly capable military. Together, these four nations have potent potential toward deterring, dissuading, and if necessary defeating China’s global aggression. The benefits go beyond that. In terms of its trading portfolio, for example, India’s closer alignment with America should help qualify Russia’s interest in closer relations with Beijing. Vladimir Putin, after all, does not want to lose his Indian export market.
Still, the Quad’s greatest fuel is ironically also its greatest adversary.
Xi Jinping’s strategy for dealing with the Quad has taken on a predictable course over the past year. First, Beijing publicly insists that the Quad is an anachronistic construct born of the Trump administration’s excessive anti-China sentiment. China then helpfully undercuts its deceptive claim with actions which remind the Quad’s members why they need closer military relations! We saw another excellent example of this dynamic on Sunday, when, just as Kyodo reported the impending Quad leaders summit, China sent armed patrol ships through Japanese waters.
Top line: any early Quad leaders summit would be good news. Facing an evolving geopolitical environment in which traditional American allies are bending the knee to Beijing, the United States must consolidate better allies wherever possible. The Quad must be the cornerstone of that effort.
