Gen. George Patton was often referred to as “old blood and guts.” Some of his troops would add, “our blood, his guts” to describe his aggressive tactics, but in a manner that only a veteran can truly appreciate. They admired the man who led them from the front.
The same cannot be said about Russian President Vladimir Putin. After nearly six months of sustained combat, with casualties approaching 60,000, the resiliency of the Russian soldier is coming unhinged. Putin hasn’t set foot on any battlefield. He distances himself from everyone. He will sacrifice his men but will not share in their burden. They are simply a means to his end — the destruction of Ukraine.
Russian soldiers see the carnage daily.
As that reality sets in, their willingness to follow orders will wane. We’re beginning to see front-line soldiers display a lack of willingness to move forward. The United Kingdom has reported that Russian soldiers, short of weapons and morale, are refusing to carry out orders and sabotaging their own equipment. In contrast, the Ukrainian soldier has proven to be a formidable adversary, one who strikes fear in the hearts of front-line Russian soldiers who are operating tanks or armored personnel carriers. The recently delivered High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, escalates that fear and extends it throughout Russia’s rear area of operations. Death looms over every convoy, assembly area, fuel point, and command post. The psychological pressure is profound.
Throughout the course of the war, there have been multiple reports concerning declining morale within the Russian ranks. What happens when the Russian military at large refuses to maintain offensive operations? It is not far from that point. Reports from the Pentagon of a demoralized Russian army are resurfacing, with soldiers at all levels allegedly deserting their posts or refusing to fight. The Pentagon cites intercepted communications as their primary source of information and Ukraine’s increasingly advanced weaponry as the primary cause.
Ukrainian forces have begun their counter-offensive in the south. Confidence in their leadership, the chain of command, is a combat multiplier, and so is the artillery provided by the United States and NATO providing fire support. So now, the edge goes to Ukraine.
But what happens when a Russian battalion tactical group says no more? When a commander or his subordinates refuse to follow an order to attack or defend? We haven’t seen an incident of mutiny at the unit level, yet. But it is likely just a matter of time. Losing has a way of doing that. We’re approaching a breaking point.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
