Professor Allan Lichtman called this presidential contest for the Democrats years ago.
Not because he’s a liberal Democrat, which he is, or because he was a Hillary Clinton supporter, which he was, but because he and Russian mathematical geophysicist designed a model that has successfully predicted the popular vote winner of all six presidential elections since 1981, and all the previous ones back to 1860.
The model is called “The 13 keys to the White House.” In a paper last year, Lichtman, a professor at American University in D.C. who ran for U.S. Senate in Maryland in 2006, said, “The keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent.”
The keys include the number of seats in Congress, the competitiveness for the nomination, the presence of third-party candidates, the economy, major changes in national policy, social unrest, foreign policy success and the charisma of the incumbent or challenger.
When five or fewer of the 13 statements are false, the incumbent party wins. At the moment nine of the 13 keys go against the incumbent Republicans; last year there were eight against them. Hence, Lichtman’s prediction that the Democrat nominee would win the presidency and the Republican would not, based largely on the poor performance of President Bush and Republicans in Congress.
The beauty of the Lichtman model is the focus on the fundamentals of American political life – not the froth in the media about campaign tactics, money, even policy differences.
The racial element
Talking to Lichtman Thursday, he agreed that an element not reflected in the model is the question of race. If for some reason, Barack Obama does not win the popular vote, Lichtman said he may have to introduce a 14th key about the race of the candidates.
As Lichtman sizes up the election, he said, “2008 is the Democrats’ 1980,” in which the election of a charismatic candidate – Ronald Reagan – transformed the party dynamic for decades. “I think we’re beginning a new era,” the professor said. But like Reagan, he believes Obama has made promises that are “unrealistic,” and “obviously, he’s going to have to make some hard choices.”
Lichtman’s principles can be downloaded by clicking here: www.forecastingprinciples.com…
Election hangovers
Will the mood Wednesday of the three Democrats on the Board of Public Works be buoyant with the election of Obama? Will Maryland voters, as party leaders hope, give him the highest winning margin of any state, giving them bragging rights and White House clout?
Will the slots question pass, giving Gov. Martin O’Malley some fiscal breathing room in the next few years and a victory over his seat-mate and nemesis, Comptroller Peter Franchot? Or will slots fail, compounding O’Malley’s budget headaches and eliciting Franchot’s trademark ear-to-ear smile?
If slots lose, O’Malley can thank Obama, whose prominent photo and quote was plastered on a Stop Slots Maryland flyer. “The moral and social cost of gambling, particularly in low-income communities, could be devastating,” the flyer said. For real? Obama opposes slots?
Yes, he did say that as a state senator in a 2003 article opposing an Illinois gaming plan, but as a national candidate he took a more flexible position, supporting the Las Vegas gaming model and helping him win the support of unionized casino workers there.
The slots workers in Maryland will almost certainly be unionized as well. A “labor peace” clause in the implementing legislation requires slots operators not to block any union organizing. That’s the same legislation that could be changed to give those operators a greater share of proceeds, as they receive in other states, and potentially cutting the share going to schools.
Omen for Ehrlich
If Andy Harris manages to lose this reliably Republican district it may spell long-term bad news for both the state party and for Harris’ most prominent fan, former Gov. Robert Ehrlich Jr., who personally appealed to Democrats and independents in ads for the candidate. A Harris loss would be a bad sign for Ehrlich’s future political plans.
And for that he can partially thank Maryland Democratic congressional leaders like Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, and Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which funneled “more than $2 million” into TV spots attacking Harris, Van Hollen said.
Len Lazarick is the State House bureau chief and can be reached at [email protected].
