There was no shortage of spin after the special election in Georgia’s sixth congressional district.
Democrats called the race a win, even though Jon Ossoff couldn’t clinch an outright victory. Republicans claimed it was a win for them because Ossoff now faces a runoff. And both sides agreed the results were a wake-up call for Trump’s embattled White House.
They’re all wrong though. Perhaps in the fullness of time, it will be revealed that Georgia’s sixth district was a precursor of things to come. But in the last decade, there’s no discernable correlation between special election feats and midterm election success.
Of course, Scott Brown always comes to mind during discussions about these contests. Elected to fill the seat vacated by the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, the male model-turned-senator was labeled a precursor to the Tea Party Revolution. But that’s a cherry-picked example.
There were 16 special elections ahead of the 2010 midterms and Democrats came out on top in 10. They held onto three Senate and seven House seats. By contrast, Republicans won six of those races, posting two Senate wins and managing one House upset.
No doubt interesting, the results were hardly telling. Anyone looking exclusively at these results would predict moderate Democrat losses at worst. And they’d be wrong because it was an absolutely red November that year. The GOP won 63 seats to flip the House and four seats to expand their beachhead in the Senate. In short, Republicans crushed it.
So why all the breathless punditry and endless extrapolation over special elections? Because they’re fun little proxy wars. Infused with outside money and oversized expectations, these rural contests become countrywide exhibitions. They make for good theater, splashy headlines, and easy clicks.
But any pundit trying to spin a national narrative out of a win or a loss should be dismissed. In recent years there’s scant evidence of a correlation between success in special and midterm elections.
So watch Ossoff duke it out. See if he can keep up his momentum ahead of a June runoff election. Win or lose though, don’t assume the sky’s falling after the final results are posted.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
