When President Trump welcomed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to the White House for the first time 13 months ago, the bragger in chief had his usual “only I can do it” attitude. While thanking Abbas for traveling an entire ocean to meet with him, Trump talked about striking an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal as if it was just another negotiation with a casino or hotel about use of the Trump family name. Sure, he acknowledged, previous American presidents weren’t able to pull it off. But previous presidents also didn’t have the skills, the smarts, and the perseverance of Trump to make the “ultimate deal.” Middle East peace is “something that I think is, frankly, maybe not as difficult as people have thought over the years,” Trump declared to everyone else’s amusement.
Eighteen months after Trump was first sworn in, the administration’s Israeli-Palestinian peace plan remains a closely guarded secret. The world is told that the delays are nothing to be concerned about and that the White House is waiting for the perfect time to roll it out. But it’s just as likely that the plan is being kept in a safe somewhere because deep down, the White House realizes that the effort may very well be a waste of time and diplomatic energy. Who would have thought badgering Israelis and Palestinians to sign a peace settlement would be so complicated?
Former American negotiators and regional analysts, of course, correctly point out the absurdity of this question. If arriving at a Middle East peace agreement was easy, it would have been done decades ago. This isn’t some real estate deal in Manhattan, where Trump can bully the weaker side into getting what he wants; the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a contest of wills between two irascible parties who are stubbornly insistent on getting everything while conceding nothing. Surely Trump can sympathize with that argument?
Jared Kushner, the president’s son-and-law and the administration’s wunderkind, has spent the last week in the Middle East jetting to regional capitals and meeting with the big-guns (Jordanian King Abdullah, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi to name only three). The purpose of the trip was to listen to Arab rulers as the administration finalizes its draft plan.
The Arabs would clearly like the Palestinians to stop acting like petulant children, but they recognize that to say so openly would be sacrilegious in the eyes of their public. The Trump administration, too, would like the Palestinian political leadership to grow a spine and show some courage. Speaking to the Washington Post, an administration official was incredulous about Abbas’s behavior over the last six months. Outside of normal West Bank security consultations, Abbas has ordered a full diplomatic cutoff of relations with Washington in protest over Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Abbas could very well throw Kushner’s peace plan in the garbage as soon as it’s delivered to his office. “If [Abbas] doesn’t give it a read, if he just sticks with the language which he’s been saying publicly, such as the U.S. is out [as a peacemaker] and that he won’t even look at it … well shame on him,” the unnamed administration official said.
For Kushner, a Middle East peace deal is just as important to his own self-worth as it is to his father-in-law’s ego. A lot of people inside and out of Washington don’t believe the real-estate scion should even be in the White House to begin with. Democrats consider Kushner wholly unqualified and compromised due to his business dealings, and former peace negotiators roll their eyes at the idea that a 30-something year-old with no foreign policy experience can succeed where career diplomats failed over the last 25 years. If, after years of listening, haggling, and threatening, Kushner does what no man or woman has done before, we will all have to issue him a giant, heartfelt apology for doubting his abilities. But, if his project fails (as seems likely), many will have their beliefs about Kushner confirmed.
Middle East peace is not rocket science. The formula hasn’t changed since the U.S. first tried to get everybody together in the early 1990s: the establishment of an independent Palestinian state along the 1967 lines, with mutual land swaps to account for Israel’s major settlement blocs; a symbolic right of return for Palestinian refugees; the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the West Bank; the recognition of a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem; the acceptance of Israel as a Jewish state; and full diplomatic normalization between the two. Whether it gets done will ultimately depend on Israeli and Palestinian politicians.
In other words, Trump better be prepared for his “ultimate deal” to collapse like Michael Flynn’s tenure — in agony.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
