Presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama both wrongly ordered military withdrawals from areas where the military was not taking regular casualties. But Obama’s 2011 withdrawal from Iraq and Trump’s present withdrawal from Syria were motivated by two different failures.
In Trump’s withdrawal from northern Syria, the critical problem is ignorance. In Obama’s case, the problem was arrogance.
Let’s start with Trump. Agreeing with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey to withdraw U.S. military forces from Syria, Trump assumed those forces were achieving nothing but lost treasure without reciprocal mercantilism. Trump thought Erdoğan would listen to his warnings not to purge the Kurds. Trump believed he could manage the fallout of an American vacuum of power. These assessments were absurd, and Trump should have realized as much.
But Trump didn’t realize. He clearly has not been listening to his intelligence briefings or his national security advisers.
How else can we explain Trump’s lack of awareness that Erdoğan has domestic political interest in crushing Kurdish lives? Or Trump’s lack of awareness that the moment America withdrew from northern Syria would be the moment the YPG-aligned forces guarding thousands of ISIS prisoners would refocus on fighting Turkey? Or that Erdoğan doesn’t view Trump through the same prism that Trump views Erdoğan: as one of two tough-men in command of great power. Had he paid attention to intelligence reporting on Erdoğan’s duplicity, he would know that Erdoğan views Trump as he views all American presidents: as challenging leaders to be manipulated in Erdoğan’s interest.
That last point is especially telling. After all, Trump isn’t exactly happy when he knows people are trying to manipulate him. Trust me, there will be evidence available and briefed to Trump over the past few days that Erdoğan is a deceptive adversary.
Regardless, what’s done is done and the consequence is that which we see now: Erdoğan has played Trump. Trump has been forced to kneel at Erdoğan’s literal palace throne (albeit via Vice President Mike Pence) and surrender for the Kurds on Turkish terms. Trump’s failure is built on successive acts born of ignorance.
In contrast, Obama’s Iraq failure was born of deep arrogance.
Ordering the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Iraq by the end of 2011, Obama refused to hear the warnings. It wasn’t that Obama was unaware of the intelligence briefings and military advice.
On the contrary, Obama was a voracious intelligence consumer who gave ample time to advisers. Obama knew the risks, but chose his domestic political interests over them anyway. He must have known that Iran would find great influence in America’s withdrawal, and use that influence to increase the sectarian quality of Iraq’s political leadership.
Obama must have known that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq was tentative, requiring a continued American military presence to fill Iraqi security force capability gaps. Obama also knew that then-Ambassador to Iraq Jim Jeffrey could make progress in negotiations to retain U.S. forces there. But instead of granting Jeffrey that authority, Obama chose to ignore the right decision and instead listen to Ben Rhodes.
Obama chose his own ego, his belief that America could muddle through, over the analysis of those he knew understood Iraq best.
We should condemn both presidents’ withdrawals for their damage to American interests and security. But we should pay close heed to their different roots. One withdrawal was built on ignorance, the other on arrogance.
