There was a time not so long ago when polls showed Donald Trump leading among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa. Polls further indicated that Christian conservatives were a crucial part of his early polling success.
Today, Trump maintains a lead in national surveys. But in Iowa, whose February caucuses will be the first major electoral event of the presidential nominating process, his support is collapsing, and waning support among Evangelicals seems to be an important reason why.
In fact, four recent polls show Trump is now in second place among Republican voters in the Hawkeye State, and a fifth poll shows him tied with Ben Carson. Trump is falling behind with many demographic groups in Iowa, but chief among them are evangelicals, who make up a majority of Iowa caucus-goers. Most of those voters are transferring their support, at least for now, to retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
A Monmouth University poll released October 26 shows Ben Carson ahead of Trump 32 percent to 18 percent. That’s a 9-point gain for Carson compared to late August. Trump, meanwhile, has fallen six points in that time. In the August poll, Carson held a six-point lead over Trump among evangelical voters. Now that lead is 18 points (36 percent to 18 percent).
Loras College also released the results of a poll on October 26. It showed Carson leading Trump among Iowa Republicans 31 percent to 19 percent. Among evangelicals, Carson is attracting 36 percent support, twice as much as Trump’s 18 percent.
A day earlier, a CBS/YouGov poll found Carson and Trump tied in Iowa, with 27 percent apiece. But Carson has double Trump’s support among Iowa evangelicals, 34 percent to 17 percent.
In an October 22 Quinnipiac poll, Carson led Trump 28 percent to 20 percent among likely Iowa Republican caucus participants. Carson’s support among evangelicals was 36 percent to Trump’s 17 percent. Six weeks earlier, Trump was leading Carson 27 percent to 21 percent.
And on October 16, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll found Carson surging to 28 percent support in Iowa, up ten points since late August, and Trump with 19 percent support, down 4 points. Evangelical Christians represented 42 percent of poll participants and gave Carson a third of their support, up from 21 percent in August, when he had a slim lead over Trump among that group.
There are several reasons why Trump’s support is waning among Iowans generally and evangelical Iowans specifically, including Trump’s recent Twitter insult of Iowa voters.
For evangelicals, it’s likely that Trump’s attacks on Ben Carson’s Seventh Day Adventist faith and his almost laughable lack of knowledge of, or seriousness about, his professed Christian faith have damaged him. Or perhaps Christian voters see Trump as personifying the seven deadly sins better than any other candidate.
But the biggest factor may be the presence of a similar and less offensive alternative in Carson. Like Trump, Ben Carson is a straight-talking outsider with a penchant for making outrageous statements. But he is also a committed Christian, and that means a lot to committed Christian voters.
In the Quinnipiac poll, only 32 percent said they felt Trump was a committed Christian, while 62 percent said they liked that Carson is guided by his faith. Indeed, Carson’s campaign is infused with religious themes, including his stated goal of returning America to its Christian roots.
Daniel Allott is deputy commentary editor for the Washington Examiner
