Brexit, or Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, faces a huge test on Saturday.
On Saturday, parliamentarians will vote on Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new withdrawal agreement with the EU. Agreed with the EU on Thursday, that deal is mostly the same as the one former Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated but failed to shepherd through Parliament. The major difference is that Johnson’s new deal removes concerns over an “Irish backstop” involving customs controls taking effect if a long term U.K.-EU trade deal isn’t reached.
Johnson deserves credit for addressing that sticking point, and he is likely to earn a few additional votes as a result of it. Still, he faces a major challenge in winning a majority vote of 320 or more in the House of Commons. Excellent analysis from the Financial Times suggests that the most likely result is a 321-318 rejection of Johnson’s deal.
While it’s going to be a very close vote, I suspect Johnson might just be able to pry a few Labour votes away from the “No’s” lobby. Many Labour voters are sympathetic toward Brexit, and many Labour parliamentarians have no great affection for their leader, Jeremy Corbyn. That offers an opportunity to spend the next 12 hours or so in some heavy influence efforts.
According to parliamentary legislation already passed, if the bill fails, Johnson is required to ask the EU to grant an extension to the Brexit withdrawal date — now set for Oct. 31st. But Johnson doesn’t want any delay and could well refuse to make such a request. His position will likely be that it’s this deal or a “no deal Brexit,” and in any event, EU leaders appear divided on whether they would even grant an extension, were Johnson to request one.
While Commission President Jean Claude-Juncker on Thursday recommended against an extension, others believe that the longer Brexit is delayed, the more likelihood Britain will cancel Brexit altogether.
On the flip side, if the vote passes on Saturday, the EU will then vote on whether to approve the withdrawal agreement. Barring any major or unexpected complications, they will approve it. Britain will cash out of the EU on Oct. 31.
One thing is for certain: this coming Saturday in the House of Commons will be a Saturday to remember.
