On Capitol Hill, Democrats are digging in for the coming Supreme Court struggle, and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expects each of his senators to do their part. Though some inevitably will turncoat, Schumer knows he can count on Tammy Baldwin during the brawl.
Trump’s nominee will not only determine the direction of the judiciary, Baldwin knows that he represents an existential political threat to her already anemic and bloodied Democratic Party in Wisconsin.
Baldwin’s camp could live or die with the confirmation of Judge Neil Gorsuch. If he’s rejected, her Democrats will remain relevant in the state. If he’s confirmed, Wisconsin’s red realignment may become permanent. That’s because Gorsuch would likely cast the fifth conservative vote needed to overturn Whitford v. Gill.
At issue in that case are Wisconsin’s ever shifting electoral lines. Democrats argue that Republican gerrymandering turned the Badger State from blue to red. “It’s clear the current redistricting process is undermining our democracy,” the Campaign Legal Center argued, “and partisan gerrymandering has become the political weapon of choice for legislators to maintain political power.” They point, for instance, to the fact that in 2012 the GOP won 60 percent of the State Assembly seats with just 49 percent of the vote.
And last November, three magistrates agreed. The federal court for the Western District of Wisconsin ruled that Republican lawmakers had fiddled with electoral districts for expressly political purposes. To remedy the wrong, they ordered the state to redraw the lines no later than Nov. 1, 2017, about a year before the midterm elections.
The GOP responded by lawyering up. Wisconsin Public Radio reports that Republicans hired private attorneys who already expect to appeal their case to the Supreme Court directly.
Maybe their arguments are good but Republican odds are bad. If Baldwin’s Democrats stall Gorsuch’s nomination, the Supreme Court would be forced to field the case with an eight-man bench, almost ensuring the roster deadlocks 4-4. In the case of a tie on the high court, the decision of the low court would take precedent and Wisconsin’s political landscape shifts.
Is it cynical to suggest that Baldwin would deliberately hold up Gorsuch’s nomination to give Democrats a better chance of storming a Republican stronghold? Maybe. Does it help explain Baldwin’s opposition? Absolutely.
When Trump picked Gorsuch, Baldwin promised to “fully review his record” and give “fair consideration to this nomination.” Apparently reviewing the details of the judge’s career didn’t take her long. Less than two days after the announcement, Baldwin dismissed the nominee because he lacked a “mainstream record.”
That should reassure Schumer. He doesn’t need to worry about Baldwin’s resolve in the looming Supreme Court struggle. If they can run the clock out on Gorsuch, Wisconsin Democrats have a good chance of getting back in the game thanks to redrawn election districts.
Baldwin knows this and that’s why she won’t abandon her post. After all, she first won a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives back in 1998 thanks to a redistricted congressional district.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
