The divergence between some prominent Democrats and the party’s leftmost wing would probably fall away with a Trump victory — unite to fight the common enemy and all that. But if Joe Biden wins next month, then there is a potential for further intraparty division. That’s what Barack Obama seems to fear.
Obama recently encouraged “progressives” not to push too hard — or at least not to treat their demands as zero-sum matters.
“The caution I always have for progressives is making sure that, as you push for the most you could get, that at a certain point, you say, ‘All right. You know what? Let’s get this done, and then, let’s move on to fight another day,” he said on Pod Save America, whose hosts all worked in the Obama administration.
Those on the receiving end of Obama’s exhortation would include the likes of Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pramila Jayapal — indeed, the whole Bernie Sanders, “Medicare for all,” and “Green New Deal” coalition — who have explicitly said they plan to push Biden and ultimately expect him to be pushed to the left. The inertia really is behind those House progressive caucus types, and they should be encouraged. Biden has moved toward them, though he has rebuked the “socialist” moniker that so many fervently embrace. “I beat the socialist,” Biden has said. He challenged their entire ethos by doing that.
On policy, the question is where else Biden will go. Obama knows as well as anyone just how far Biden is willing to move and anticipates some ongoing tension. Healthcare and climate are areas where Biden will be challenged, though the most pressing question as of now is the Supreme Court.
Immediately after Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, Biden said, “We need to de-escalate, not escalate.” Yet, since then, he has been extremely mushy on the question of court-packing. At his Thursday ABC town hall, Biden suggested that he is actively entertaining it. Even as he flirts with it, Biden is not quite where Sen. Ed Markey is, at least not publicly. Perhaps that will change. He did say he would let voters know his position before Election Day, but it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll honor that.
In any case, it may all depend on how things play out. There are a number of variables that will determine where party leadership might decide to go, including who wins the congressional majorities and, obviously, who wins the White House. There’s reason to believe that Democrats, and especially a Biden administration, would cast aside the court-packing scheme. Developing and passing a court-packing scheme would be all-consuming and would drown out anything else Biden would want to do.
But even that may depend on the outcome of the pending Supreme Court case on the Affordable Care Act. On the slim chance that the law gets thrown out, there would be more pressure to do something about the court, but if not, there would be less reason to bother with it in the short term. A whole lot can be done with Congress and the White House both, but Biden will have to come all the way around on the abolition of the filibuster. He has entertained that, too, but not gone all-in.
Whatever happens, groups like Demand Justice won’t simply step away from the court-packing platform if the party does so, nor from its criticisms of Democrats who retain reservations about the most controversial proposals (see its treatment of Sen. Dianne Feinstein). The others won’t simply give up on Medicare for all or the Green New Deal for the time being.
The people to whom Obama spoke are not fond of taking what they can get. If Obama’s thoughts are any indication, there will be things that they and other Democrats could get that Biden isn’t willing to work for, and that will lead to a lot of unhappiness among the Democratic base.
