Hu Xijin is editor-in-chief of the Global Times newspaper, Beijing’s primary English-language mouthpiece to the world. In that role, Hu is also the primary messenger for the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission — a loyal servant who follows orders and influences strategy.
This is why Hu’s latest rant on Tuesday, on the topic of Taiwan, deserves your attention.
Titled “The more trouble Taiwan creates, the sooner the mainland will teach them a lesson,” the piece isn’t very relaxed. On the contrary, Hu and his party bosses are very upset. Their specific fury today is directed at the KMT opposition party in the Taiwanese legislature for tabling bills that advance closer relations with the United States. The current government of President Tsai Ing-wen is also in favor of closer U.S. relations against Chinese protests, and so, the KMT’s action means that a vast supermajority of the legislature is now hostile to Beijing.
Hu spares no excuses for the KMT. He says that the party has “woken up on the wrong side of the bed.” He continues, “They have gone downhill and become vulgar. They would do anything to just get rid of their political passivity on the island of Taiwan. They are losers.”
Here we see emotion infecting the Communist Party hardliners when it comes to Taiwan. Where we see a plucky democracy determined to defend its rights and expand its international relationships, the hardliners see a parasite that sucks at the purity of the nation. I do not exaggerate, as Hu quickly makes clear. “On the upside,” he says, “those politicians’ treachery have helped the Chinese mainland see clearly what is happening on the island. We must no longer hold any more illusions. The only way forward is for the mainland to fully prepare itself for war and to give Taiwan secessionist forces a decisive punishment at any time.” Hu concludes, “It’s certain that the current status of the island of Taiwan is only a short period in history that will definitely come to an end.”
While this rhetoric might seem like hyperbole — and, to a degree, it is just that — it cannot simply be laughed off. True, China’s international standing has collapsed in a revolt against its trade practices and coronavirus-related deceptions. A near-term invasion of Taiwan is thus unlikely, in that it would further undermine Beijing’s global investment-influence agenda. Still, the Communist Party’s higher echelons view the Taiwan question as a critical test of their ability to define the 21st-century global order. Xi Jinping views Taiwan through a lens of particular paranoia and is deeply concerned that Taipei’s improving international standing undermines his leadership. To that end, Beijing is preparing to challenge Taiwan’s confidence short of invasion. A show of military force, such as the use of fighter jets to overfly Taiwan, is likely.
This is not to say that the U.S. or Taiwan should accept Beijing’s diktat that it alone will set Taiwan’s destiny. The U.S. should continue to provide economic and political support to Tsai’s government and sell certain military equipment. But the overriding intent should be to reinforce Taiwan’s ability to deter and resist an invasion and increase the international community’s support for that same objective. Not a rush of diplomatic recognition that risks crossing China’s red lines.
