The NFL’s first week of the season was full of drama (and I’m talking about what happened on the field, not off it). Week 2 has equally enticing match-ups — here are three you can’t miss.
Last week, my picks did well, going 3-0 against the spread and 2-1 straight up, so you can be sure these picks are pretty good bets.
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1), 1 p.m. ET on FOX
The Falcons got pummeled in the season opener by the Seattle Seahawks, and the Cowboys were on the wrong side of a controversial offensive pass interference call at the end of their clash with the Los Angeles Rams.
Both teams enter this matchup 0-1, and both need a win in Week 2. An 0-2 start would be a disaster for either franchise.
Three different Falcons receivers had more than 100 yards last week, and we could see that again this Sunday. Matt Ryan had eye-popping numbers, but much of the damage came when the result wasn’t in doubt. Can he prevent the Dirty Birds from falling into a hole early?
One of the big surprises from that game was how little the Cowboys (one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league, if not the most) actually ran the football. I expect that to change this week and expect to see Ezekiel Elliot get a lot of touches.
Dak Prescott can air it out too because the Cowboys have their own formidable trio of receivers in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb. Atlanta has the better passing attack, but Dallas isn’t afraid to go after the Falcons’ secondary.
Dallas is supposed to have about 20,000 fans in attendance on Sunday. Will that noise make a difference at all?
The Cowboys held the Rams to 20 points last week but only mustered 17 of their own. They’re likely relieved that they won’t face anyone like Aaron Donald or Jalen Ramsey this week.
My x-factor in this game is Todd Gurley on the Falcons. He ran 14 times and only averaged 4 yards a carry in Week 1. He did have a touchdown as well as a pair of receptions. Sixteen total touches is a good start for a guy who had a lot of people worried because of his injury history. Fifty-six rushing yards didn’t cut it against the Seahawks and likely won’t get the job done against Dallas either. If he has a really good game, that could be the difference the Falcons need to leave Big D with a W.
The line: Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
The pick: I see this one staying relatively close and then Elliot scoring late to seal the win. I’m taking the Cowboys to win and cover.
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Houston Texans (0-1), 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Ravens-Texans gives us a delicious matchup between two of the game’s most talented, impressive, dynamic, and entertaining quarterbacks.
Last week, Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP, made the Cleveland Browns look like, well, the Cleveland Browns. He picked them apart with his arm and didn’t even need to run all that much.
On the other sideline, Deshaun Watson can do it all. He’s an incredible leader and playmaker. Watch last year’s playoff game against the Buffalo Bills if you need a reminder.
The Texans lost their season opener to the Kansas City Chiefs in the same manner that they lost their divisional round playoff game. They got out to an early lead and then gave up a ton of unanswered points. Kansas City was able to do what it wanted through the air and on the ground. Houston will have to find an answer for Baltimore’s explosive offense.
Jackson and Mark Andrews hooked up for a couple of scores, and J.K. Dobbins ran for a pair of touchdowns as well. Travis Kelce had a huge game against the Texans while the Chiefs racked up 166 rushing yards. Baltimore’s run game is even better than the Chiefs’. Can the Texans slow them down?
Houston also has some injury issues to deal with. Duke Johnson, David Johnson’s backup, injured his ankle against the Chiefs and might not be able to go against the Ravens. David Johnson had a very good game and scored the season’s first touchdown. He’ll need a monster game in order to keep the Texans in it and keep the Ravens offense off the field. Will Fuller had eight catches for over 110 yards. He’s a great receiver when healthy, but he doesn’t have DeAndre Hopkins around anymore to draw defenders away.
The line: Baltimore Ravens (-7)
The pick: This pick seems pretty easy to me. I think the Ravens and Chiefs are on a different level than the rest of the AFC. While I’m a bit worried about Houston’s ability to score late and ruin my pick, I’m still taking Baltimore to win and cover.
New England Patriots (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0), 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
The Cam Newton era in New England began with a 21-11 home win over the Miami Dolphins. I’d hardly call that inspiring. Newton ran for a pair of scores and gives the Pats much more versatility, but Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw three picks, did more to hurt the Dolphins last week than New England did.
Meanwhile, Russell Wilson dissected the Atlanta Falcons with incredible precision through the air. That’s a departure for one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams.
Something unusual to watch out for will be the air quality in Seattle because of the West Coast’s wildfires.
While Bill Belichick excels at taking away a team’s greatest offensive assets, Wilson doesn’t really have any weaknesses that this team can exploit. We saw what quarterbacks like Watson, Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes did to the Pats last year. I expect more of the same, especially now that Wilson is even more content to sit back and drop dimes from the pocket.
Outside of Julian Edelman, Newton doesn’t have a signature receiving threat. James White is an effective pass catcher, but is he going to be able to get past Bobby Wagner and the Seahawks’ linebackers and into the second level?
I don’t know how this Patriots defense will hold up against the Seahawks, but it’s not easy to cross a couple of time zones for a matchup against an MVP-level quarterback and an offense that can beat you through the air and on the ground.
It seems to me that the best hope for the Patriots is to try and keep this one as close and low-scoring as they can and get Newton to engineer a game-winning drive. If the Seahawks get rolling early, I don’t see any way that the Pats can keep up. They seemed overly reliant on Newton in Week 1.
While the Patriots are still trying to figure out their identity as a football team, Seattle seems to know what it does well and what it needs to do to make a deep postseason run.
The line: Seattle Seahawks (-4)
The pick: I think Wilson will continue his MVP-caliber play and lead Seattle to the victory at home. I’m taking the Seahawks to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington.
