The daily news about the novel coronavirus is bad. Every day, we are told that the pandemic is out of control and that there is no end in sight. We read that the number of new cases is rising, deaths are climbing, and the United States has by far the most deaths of any country in the world. The economy is collapsing, unemployment is spiking, and a depression is coming. But experts warn us that reopening the economy will just mean more suffering and death.
It is true that the pandemic’s toll on our health and economic well-being has been devastating. But a review of public reports, statistics, and studies shows that the future is not as dire as we are being told by the national media.
In fact, there is ample evidence that we are turning the corner on the virus and that the overwhelming majority of people are not at serious risk if they take commonsense precautions and follow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.
Here are eight reasons why things are starting to look a little better.
One, the number of new cases is falling, even as testing has increased. The number of new cases per day in the U.S. has dropped to the 20,000 range, from a peak of 36,000 in April. Daily positive tests as a percentage of total daily tests are dropping, falling from more than 20% in April to a 6%-7% range this week. Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb tweeted on Wednesday that there was a “sustained and sharper decline” in new cases and that the “epidemic is slowing.”
National data from this past week suggest that the U.S. is starting to experience a sustained and sharper decline in new covid19 cases after a period of extended plateau. pic.twitter.com/alcFxGsrq3
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) May 13, 2020
Two, while the number of deaths we have had is appalling and continues to rise, the number of daily deaths is falling. From a seven-day moving average of more than 3,000 a day in April, the current seven-day average has dropped to 1,459 from May 8 to May 14.
Three, a comparison of new cases in each state over the last two weeks shows that the first phase of the reopenings has not resulted in a surge of new cases. Forty states had decreases in new cases or held steady. Only one, South Dakota, had a big increase, due to a meatpacking plant outbreak. Notably, Georgia had a 12% decline, and Florida had a 14% decline in new cases.
Four, nearly 50% of all U.S. fatalities have occurred in just three states: New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Another 20% have been in six other states: Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Louisiana, and California. The other 42 states and the District of Columbia have had the remaining 30%. All the hardest-hit states have started to show progress, with hospitalizations trending down. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whose state has suffered one-third of all U.S. fatalities, said on May 11 that “we are on the other side of the mountain.”
Five, 35% of total U.S. deaths have occurred in nursing homes, and many of the nursing home deaths were in the hardest-hit states. About 61% of the total nursing home deaths were in just five states: New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania. New York has had 5,398 nursing home deaths as of May 13, more than the total deaths in every other state except New Jersey. Nursing homes accounted for more than half of the total fatalities in New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, and 66% of the total in Pennsylvania. While no death is a good thing, the concentration of deaths in nursing homes suggests the virus is not as widespread as feared.
Six, we now know that older people are the most vulnerable to the virus. People age 65 and older account for 80% of all deaths. Those over age 75 account for nearly 60%. Less than 8% of fatalities are people under 55, and less than 3% are people under 45. Again, no death is a good thing, but it suggests that fewer people should be scared of the virus if they catch it.
Seven, most of the people infected with the virus, about 80%-90%, do not have to be hospitalized. The vast majority of the people who are hospitalized have major underlying health problems. According to a Journal of American Medical Association study, 94% of all people hospitalized in the New York City area have at least one chronic health condition. About 88% had two preexisting conditions. Only 6% had no underlying condition. The most common underlying conditions are hypertension, obesity, and diabetes. Again, this suggests that fewer people need to be scared of the virus if they catch it.
And finally, the U.S. is not “the world’s hotspot for the virus,” as the Washington Post wrote on May 12. In fact, the U.S. has a much lower mortality rate, as measured on a per capita basis, than all but one of the countries most affected by the virus. Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom all have much higher mortality rates.
To sum up, the number of new cases, fatalities, and hospitalizations are all trending in the right direction. We know that if you are not in a nursing home, over the age of 65, and do not have a serious medical condition, your chances of getting hospitalized from the virus are low. States that have started to reopen have not seen a surge of new cases. Hot spots have and will pop up in meatpacking plants, prisons, and other similar places, but states are learning how to respond to these outbreaks. Testing is ramping up, therapeutics are emerging, and the race for a vaccine is underway. We still have a long way to go, but these are all positive indications that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Bruce Thompson was assistant secretary of the treasury for legislative affairs during the Reagan administration and director of government relations for Merrill Lynch for 22 years.
