In the wake of the United Kingdom’s shock Brexit decision in June, I thought the analogies to Donald Trump’s rise were inapposite and silly. There are numerous reasons why the U.K. would want to untangle itself from the European Union. To name a few that have nothing to do with race or immigration, the Euro hasn’t created prosperity that was promised (Greece is a disaster economically and more countries are teetering on the brink) and the European Commission is undemocratic and unresponsive.
But then Trump got elected. His vitriolic campaign rhetoric shows how far Republicans have descended from President Reagan’s “shining city on the hill”, and now world leaders are questioning how a “Trump doctrine” might affect them. The uncertainty around his foreign policy, or lack thereof, might cause a Brexit re-think across the pond.
Trump is right to point out that Europeans and others have been happy to have the United States make up the largest share of global defense spending, because it allows them to divert more resources into domestic programs. At what point does the U.S. get to spend less abroad and focus on its own issues at home? But an aggressive Russian President Vladimir Putin mixed with an isolationist Trump is great cause for concern for Europeans. The security blanket, upon which they have relied so heavily for so long, could be yanked away. If Trump’s policy matches his campaign rhetoric, he could, by default, make the U.K. the indispensable global power in the free world.
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair, when speaking to Congress in 2003, echoed the concerns of many Americans when it comes to our outsized role in foreign policy. Blair said “I know out there there’s a guy getting on with his life … saying to you, the political leaders of this country, ‘Why me? And why us?’ … Because destiny put you in this place in history, in this moment in time, and the task is yours to do.” It’s ironic that just 13 years later, I would parrot that quote back at the U.K.
If Trump is no longer willing to stand up to dictators like Putin because he doesn’t want to be the world’s policeman, people will inevitably look to the U.K. Suddenly, Prime Minister Theresa May becomes the new Atlas, who cannot shrug. This wouldn’t be the first time a “bloody difficult woman” from the U.K. stood up to Russia. But former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had Reagan in her corner. I’m not sure how far Trump would go to protect Europe or back May.
Moreover, May’s desire to negotiate a free trade deal with the U.S. gives Trump a great deal of bargaining power. Trump is not known for easy negotiations. If he’s willing to use Chinese steel in his buildings and stiff his contractors, who knows what kind of deal the U.K. will get or whether he’ll act in good faith. But if May, at least temporarily, halts Brexit for several years, Trump’s bargaining power declines dramatically. Suddenly, he will need her more than she needs him.
Some will inevitably argue the U.K. could lead Europe from outside the EU, but the individual nations’ security forces are a joke. Who within the EU would stand up to an aggressive Putin? France? Germany? Belgium?
The mere suggestion probably made readers smirk. Only the U.K. has the strong military capacity to protect Europe, and it would need to be within the EU to lead a common defense and security policy. The concept of yet more European integration on such a central issue is heresy to U.K. Conservatives, but the alternative may be far worse if they’re at risk of losing to the Labour Party.
Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn is no public relations genius, but his spin doctors lost no time in trying to lay Trump’s outlandish comments at the doorstep of 10 Downing Street, as the Brexit/Trump analogy settles into the mindset of the British psyche.
President Clinton told Blair to “hug Bush close.” But now Blair is persona non grata in his own country; he’s still despised by his own party for his part in the Iraq War. Being a good friend to Trump might carry a high political cost back home. The notion of Prime Minister Corbyn would worry both Republican and Democrats in the intelligence services. But Putin would grin like a cat that caught a canary if the U.K. elects a man who is keen to scrap the country’s Trident nuclear deterrent.
It’s been a long time since a U.K. prime minister has been a leader of the free world, but Trump’s long shadow of isolationism should force the U.K. to examine their foreign policy in a new light.
Stuart Young is a Harvard lawyer and public relations consultant living in London. He has worked in Parliament and for the BBC. Thinking of submitting an op-ed to the Washington Examiner? Be sure to read our guidelines on submissions.
