With nearly two years to go, almost anything in the realm of the 2020 presidential election could change from now until Election Day. The one thing that won’t, however, is math.

Any Democrat seeking to unseat President Trump will have to achieve at least one of the following: mobilize the base to achieve Obama-level turnout and enthuse the Left, or successfully splinter off ideological agnostics and the suburbs that defected from the GOP in the midterm elections.