As great as the Super Bowl is, sometimes the real drama is on the NFL’s Conference Championship Sunday. The legacies of legends are on the line, as Tom Brady faces off against Aaron Rodgers and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs face off against the team that has been tormented so much, the Buffalo Bills.
After my picks last week went 2-2 overall and 1-3 against the spread, my seasonlong record is now 38-23 straight-up and 29-29 against the spread (with three pushes). Now, let’s get right to my previews, three keys for each team and picks for each game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) at Green Bay Packers (13-3), Sunday at 3:05 p.m. EST on FOX
Key No. 1 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Run defense
The league’s top-ranked run defense might get a boost as defensive tackle Vita Vea participated in practice this week and could play for the first time since Week 5. With the Bucs linebackers sealing off the edge, the interior could be even stronger too.
The weather will definitely be cold in Green Bay, and while I expect Rodgers to air it out, Aaron Jones and the Packers running backs are going to get a lot of touches as well. Limiting their effectiveness will potentially force the Packers into more second- and third-and-medium or third-and-long situations.
The Packers averaged over 5 yards per carry against the Rams last week. The Bucs did a good job against Alvin Kamara and will need to do the same against Jones and company.
Key No. 2 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tom Brady, The G.O.A.T.
Brady is the greatest quarterback that has ever played the game. Period.
The history-making QB will be playing in a cold-weather environment that he’s used to, thanks to his time in New England. As he showed in the Saints game, he doesn’t have to do too much. Throwing for 199 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions got the job done last week. He’ll likely be called upon to do more since Rodgers and the league’s top-scoring offense is on the other sideline.
It’s important for Brady to continue taking care of the football and not feel the need to make the big play or the big throw. He should have plenty of options underneath with his tight ends, and he can also dump the ball off to his running backs. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can stretch the field and keep the safeties from creeping down.
While the Tampa Bay defense’s performance might be more important, Brady will likely have to have a great game in order to advance to yet another Super Bowl. With the game on the line, there’s no quarterback I’d rather have with the ball in his hands. We’ll see if he gets such an opportunity today.
Key No. 3 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Don’t be afraid to commit to the run
Leonard Fournette didn’t wow anyone running the ball but did do a nice job as a receiver out of the backfield. Ronald Jones II did a much better job, but the Bucs averaged just 3.6 yards per carry running the ball last week. The Packers defense isn’t nearly as good overall, much less against the run or the pass.
When you’re facing the league’s top-scoring offense, it’s very helpful to be able to give your defense a breather by running the ball and controlling the clock. You also wear down opposing defenses while simultaneously keeping the other team’s offense off the field. Nothing new there, but it bears repeating, especially heading to potentially snowy Green Bay.
While the Bucs should definitely want the ball in Brady’s hands as much as possible, the smart play might be to run, run, and run some more.
Key No. 1 for Green Bay Packers: Aaron Jones
Jones had a great game against the Rams last weekend. His biggest highlight might have been his 60-yard run to start the second half. That explosiveness and play-making ability will be critical for Green Bay. Jones is an incredibly efficient runner, but will he be as effective against Tampa Bay’s top-ranked run defense?
He had a tough time getting going when they played earlier this season, but he has to be buoyed by his recent performance and the overall momentum from the Packers’ performance against the league’s top overall defense last week.
He and wide receiver Davante Adams are, along with Rodgers, the pillars of the offense. If Jones can get the Packers going and gain good yardage on first downs, it will spark the offense and open things up for Adams, Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard, and other backs such as Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon.
While I think the Packers can win with a good game from Adams, I think they’ll have a much tougher time winning if they don’t get something better than a good game from Jones.
Key No. 2 for Green Bay Packers: Pass defense
Since the Bucs offense is loaded with fantastic receiving options for Brady, pass defense will be a premium for the Packers.
The Saints did a really nice job in some respects in their loss to the Bucs. They limited Brady to under 200 yards passing, limited Evans to just one catch for 3 yards, and forced Brady to dump the ball off to Fournette and underneath to Cameron Brate instead of stretching the field.
I expect Rob Gronkowski to have a big impact. He led the squad in catches and receiving yards with five grabs for 78 yards and a touchdown when the Bucs crushed the Packers in Week 6.
So, to recap, you have Evans, Godwin, Brate, Gronkowski, and Scotty Miller, with Fournette and Ronald Jones II potentially catching passes out of the backfield.
Antonio Brown, who was Brady’s favorite target down the stretch in the regular season, is out for the game, so that’s one less factor that the Packers will have to account for.
It will be a big challenge, so I expect the Packers to borrow a lot of ideas from the Saints. It might be helpful that the weather will be quite cold, and the conditions will be especially uncomfortable for guys used to practicing and playing in warm Tampa Bay.
Key No. 3 for Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
In his NFL career, Rodgers has thrown more touchdowns than interceptions against every team except one: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That stat needs to change on Sunday if the Packers want to move on to the Super Bowl. Drew Brees threw three interceptions against the Bucs last week, and that’s one of the big reasons why the Saints are sitting at home right now.
Rodgers was hounded by the Bucs when Green Bay was routed in Tampa early in the season. It was a very poor performance, and the Bucs almost definitely plan to spring similar schemes on Rodgers again.
Rodgers is likely the front-runner for MVP and will need to play like it. He was very good against the Rams and their elite defense, but he’ll face a Tampa Bay team that has a great defense and a great offense.
He’s obviously one of the most important reasons that the Packers have the league’s top-scoring offense. His ability to scramble, extend plays, and pick up yards is huge, and his pump-fake rushing touchdown last week showed that he’s still a threat with his legs.
While Brees wasn’t able to stretch the field and throw it deep, Rodgers can air it out with the best of them. I expect him to go for the home run if he sees a matchup he can exploit.
The line: Green Bay Packers (-3.0)
The pick: This is the first time in Rodgers’s career that he’s playing at home in an NFC Championship game. I think he’ll make the most of it. I’m taking the Packers to win but not to cover that 3-point spread.
Buffalo Bills (13-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-2), Sunday at 6:40 p.m. EST on CBS
Key No. 1 for Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Quarterback Josh Allen was good but not incredible against the Ravens. While that Ravens defense was fantastic, he’ll face an easier Chiefs defense on Sunday.
Taking care of the ball will also be paramount. You can’t give the Chiefs extra possessions and short fields and expect to leave Arrowhead with a win, let alone a conference title.
While Allen will likely need to have a spectacular game for the Bills to advance to the Super Bowl, one of the aspects he almost certainly must do is run the ball. Devin Singletary led the Bills in rushing last week, with seven carries for 25 yards. Having your top running back average less than 4 yards per carry won’t get it done against the Chiefs.
Allen is a fantastic runner and is a threat to pick up big gains when he tucks the ball and takes off. His ability to pick up first downs or run for scores will be a massive X-factor in this game. I think he’ll need to be active and productive in the running game in order for the Bills to win.
Key No. 2 for Buffalo Bills: Health of the wide receivers
Diggs is banged up, and Gabriel Davis was forced to leave the game against the Ravens due to injury. While Diggs has practiced this week, Davis is a question mark. Cole Beasley will play and doesn’t seem to be limited, although he remains injury-prone. Will the Bills be forced to call upon recently signed Kenny Stills to replace Davis if he can’t play?
As I mentioned above, the lack of a running game outside of Allen means that the Bills passing game is and will continue to be the bread and butter of this offense. If they don’t have Davis, and Diggs is forced to the sidelines to tend to an injury, the Bills become less scary offensively. Allen would have to do pretty much all of the heavy lifting.
Key No. 3 for Buffalo Bills: Pressuring Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes’s toe injury and limited mobility before he was knocked out of the game against the Browns last week should cause Buffalo to redouble its efforts to pressure Mahomes. Sending blitzes that force him to move around in or flee the pocket should be a top priority for the Bills defense.
Like Allen, Mahomes is capable of beating opponents with his legs as well as his arm. However, will he be a threat to run the ball as much since he has that injury? Mahomes says that the toe injury isn’t a concern, but the Chiefs should certainly be worried about it.
It’s important for the Bills to test out early on whether Mahomes is willing to risk taking off and running and potentially risking injury or whether he’ll pass up opportunities to run for a potential first down or big gain and look to pass instead. Putting a spy on him, as the Chiefs should certainly do with Allen, is a good idea and one they can change as they get a better sense of whether Mahomes’s mobility is limited.
The Bills have a much better chance of winning with Chiefs backup Chad Henne taking the snaps, so they should hit Mahomes whenever possible. I’m obviously not advocating for dirty plays; clean hits can add up and might aggravate one of Mahomes’s already-existing injuries.
Key No. 1 for Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes’s health
It all starts with Mahomes. The Chiefs were clearly not as effective with Henne under center. If they want to make the Super Bowl again and have the chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions, they’ll need Mahomes to take almost every snap.
While #HennethingIsPossible was fun, we saw the massive discrepancy between the former MVP and his backup. Mahomes appears to have progressed nicely through the concussion protocol, and his toe injury didn’t prevent him from practicing this week leading up to the game.
Mahomes has been simply sensational this season in leading the Chiefs to the top overall seed in the AFC and now the AFC Championship game. You’ll want to watch out for his mobility. Part of what makes Mahomes so great is his ability to extend plays, take off running, or make incredible improvised plays. If his mobility is limited, he becomes slightly easier to defend. Remember, it was his mobility and effectiveness running the ball that propelled the Chiefs past the Titans in last year’s AFC Championship game.
Key No. 2 for Kansas City Chiefs: Running game
Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t play in the win over the Browns but will need to play this week in order to give the Chiefs a more competent running game. Otherwise, the Bills will blanket the field with defensive backs to defend the pass and take their chances with their defensive front stuffing the run. He’s suffering injuries to his hip and ankle, so it’s not only a question of whether he can or will play but also how durable and effective he would be even if he does.
Darrel Williams, Le’Veon Bell, and Darwin Thompson will all be called upon to step up if Edwards-Helaire can’t play. Williams was decent in the win against the Browns, but it’s important for the Chiefs running game to be a legitimate threat on Sunday night and not just a kind of decoy.
I expect Andy Reid to reach into his bag of tricks and find ways for Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman to get carries off of jet sweeps so that he can get the ball in their hands and allow them to use their speed and make plays in space.
Key No. 3 for Kansas City Chiefs: Defending Stefon Diggs
Last week, Diggs had eight catches for 106 yards and a touchdown, Buffalo’s only offensive touchdown against the Ravens. Diggs has parlayed his regular-season dominance into exceptional play this postseason.
While the Bills have some other dangerous options around him, he is the star of the show with Josh Allen. Man-coverage is tricky because of his outstanding speed, and zone coverage might get him the ball in space with a chance to make plays. They might need to put two guys on him on critical third-down plays in order to force someone else to beat them.
Diggs is easily Allen’s favorite and best target. He’ll look for him on every play as he goes through his progressions. Taking that target away will force Allen to take a little longer with his decision-making and give the Chiefs’ defensive front a better chance to get at him.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0)
The pick: If Mahomes plays, and there’s no reason to think he won’t suit up for this hugely important game, I think he’ll be able to lead a late game-winning drive in the fourth quarter that sends Kansas City to its second consecutive Super Bowl. I’m taking the Chiefs to win but not to cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
