Think of the Republican presidential nomination fight as two separate contests within one: a conservative primary and an establishment primary. It’s a good way to evaluate the state of the race.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie finally announced for president on Tuesday, but he is currently getting shellacked in the establishment primary by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. It’s not even close. Of the fifteen candidates tracked in the RealClearPolitics polling average, Bush is in first with 15 percent of the vote and Christie is running ninth with just 3.8 percent.