After half a year and more than $200 million spent, Tom Steyer finally closed the door on his spectacular failure of a mid-life crisis masquerading as a presidential campaign. The billionaire bet it all on South Carolina, investing millions of dollars and months in the state, only to earn enough votes likely to amount to a single state delegate, if any at all.
So Steyer realized that not only is there no path for him remotely to secure the nomination, but there’s also not even one for him to obtain a modicum of leverage in the case of a contested convention. Thus, he’s dropping out of the race, and every other candidate hoping to stop Bernie Sanders and give Democrats a fighting shot at winning the White House from President Trump should do so too.
The math is obvious at this point. Sanders has too much national support and too much cash for a splintered rest of the field to secure enough 15% vote shares consistently across the country to keep him from running away with the nomination. But while Sanders may have a greater likelihood than any other candidate of winning the nomination outright, the most likely possibility of the primary is a contested convention where not one candidate enters with the majority of pledged delegates. So long as other moderates cut into Biden’s support without getting to 15%, Sanders takes all. But if other candidates drop out, the nonsocialist sector of the electorate can coalesce around Biden, crucially keeping Sanders from winning a foolproof delegate majority.
And at this point, why wouldn’t the other top candidates not want to? Michael Bloomberg outright entered the race to stop Sanders, and every second he stays in, he’s only helping him. Pete Buttigieg’s hopes for a contested convention are clearly dashed so long as he’s in the race, so why shouldn’t the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, use his once-in-a-lifetime clout to earn a guaranteed Cabinet position, or perhaps even a vice presidential nod if not handed to Amy Klobuchar? The only candidate with no obvious impetus to drop out is Elizabeth Warren, who knows that even at a sprightly 70 years old, this campaign could be her last.
The decision to Democrats is clear. Stay in the race and hand Sanders the nomination and Trump a second term, or drop out with your dignity and give your voters a chance at the White House.
