The image of a divided GOP is now so prevalent that a neutral observer might well see the arc of history bending toward the Democrats. The numbers are humbling. Fewer Americans self-identify as Republicans today than did a few decades ago, and most independents lean Democratic.

Since 1992, Democrats have won the popular vote in all but one presidential election. California went Republican in nearly every election from Dwight Eisenhower to George H. W. Bush, but since 1992 it has been solidly blue. Joe Biden even eked out a victory in Arizona, where a Democrat has not won a true majority since Harry Truman in 1948.