Results from the Pakistani elections are in and Imran Khan’s PTI party is the victor. But what does a Khan premiership mean for America?
Well, on paper, relative stability.
Khan’s victory speech highlighted key themes that should earn U.S. favor. The former star cricketer (imagine if LeBron James became president) pledged reforms to boost accountability in Pakistan’s extraordinarily corrupt government, to improve tax collection and spending transparency, and to attract foreign investment. If he can get those reforms enacted, Khan will strengthen Pakistan’s longer-term stability and gradually marginalize the extremism that defines elements of its political culture.
Yet Khan is not pro-American.
While the prime-minister-in-waiting says he wants a constructive relationship with the U.S., he has strongly condemned U.S. counterterrorism operations and is more interested in closer relations with China. That said, Khan’s China focus may indirectly be a good thing for the U.S. in drawing India into a closer strategic alignment. India is deeply concerned by China’s investment in its nemesis Pakistan, and its growing military footprint in the Arabian Sea.
More concerning is what kind of partners Khan welcomes into his governing coalition. Khan’s lack of a parliamentary majority means that he’ll have to rely on a number of smaller parties to enact his legislative agenda and avoid a vote of no confidence. That’s concerning because Khan has flirted with Islamist extremist organizations by playing to their false narratives of nationalism. Fortunately in this election, Pakistani voters have nuked the aspirations of the most hardliner figures such as Hafiz Saeed.
There are two broader insulating influences for the U.S. here.
First off, the Pakistani military. While never wholly reliable as a U.S. partner, the Pakistani armed forces and its powerful intelligence infrastructure are now led by comparatively pro-American figures. They will act as a check on any of the more outlandish impulses Khan pursues.
Second, the Saudi Arabian government. Led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudis are Pakistan’s critical economic benefactor but also now a moderating influence on hardline Pakistani-Islamism. Khan needs Saudi investment to see his ambitions realized and that gives the U.S. indirect leverage to prevent his enabling of terrorist influences in a governing coalition.
Put simply, Khan’s win means relative stability in the always imperfect U.S.-Pakistan relationship.
