President Trump just did Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu a huge favor. In turn, Trump should now tell Netanyahu that if he now refuses to support an upcoming U.S. peace plan for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump will withhold part of next year’s U.S. $3.3 billion aid grant to Israel.
It’s a big threat, but the consequences here are very significant, and Trump’s favor to Netanyahu is already grand.
After all, in granting Netanyahu talks and a dinner at the White House next week, Trump is giving the Israeli prime minister a great public relations boost just two weeks before Israel’s parliamentary elections on April 9. With the polls very tight between Netanyahu’s coalition and his primary opposition, Trump’s favor might even nudge Netanyahu back into power.
So why is Trump’s threat to Israeli aid important?
Well, because Netanyahu has been embracing more extreme anti-peace deal positions during the election campaign. And those positions make Trump’s peace plan increasingly likely to receive Netanyahu’s immediate repudiation if he is re-elected. This stands in contrast to Netanyahu’s election opponents, who are inclined to support U.S. peace efforts.
Still, Netanyahu’s pro forma rejection of the peace plan would be intolerable for U.S. interests. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a key driver of populist anti-Americanism in the Islamic world and a marginal driver of anti-American Islamic terrorism. That makes the conflict’s resolution an important priority of the U.S., Israeli, Jordanian, and Sunni-Arab national security establishments. I personally believe Netanyahu recognizes as much.
But Netanyahu must be driven towards the understanding that Trump’s support carries expectations of reciprocity, towards Netanyahu’s interest in resisting post-election Cabinet hardliners in favor of supporting Trump’s peace effort. The risks to Israeli security in the short term would be easily mitigatible: Israel’s significant economic and military power allow it to sustain a force potential capable of deterring and defeating all threats.
To be sure, the peace deal may go nowhere. And, of course, Trump must also employ similar cost-benefit actions towards the Palestinian Authority. (Hamas, which continues to rule Gaza as a dystopia of corruption, violence, and wasted opportunity, should be isolated and ignored.)
But Netanyahu must now know that he cannot have his American cake and simultaneously reject America’s peace plan. Assuming the U.S. peace plan is practical and just, it must receive serious Israeli consideration. Trump’s threat is thus now justified and appropriate.
