We had confirmation on Monday of the final 10 candidates vying to replace Theresa May as Conservative Party leader and prime minister.
Because the Conservatives hold an effective majority in the House of Commons, whoever wins the leadership contest will become the next prime minister without needing a general election. In fact, the government doesn’t have to call another election until 2022. Conservative members of Parliament will hold repeated votes until they have selected two candidates, and then Conservative Party members will vote for their favored choice. The winner will be announced at the end of July.
Here are my personal ratings from worst to best on who should win.
10) Matt Hancock
Young and chirpy, Hancock has risen through the Conservative ranks with significant speed since entering Parliament in 2010. Yet Hancock still doesn’t seem to have a firm idea of what he actually stands for. Though, to be fair, a notable exception here is the issue of Brexit. Hancock says a “no-deal” Brexit is not an option. He would attempt to pass an improved deal through Parliament and presumably allow Brexit to be suspended indefinitely in the absence of such an arrangement.
He tends to gravitate between defending May and positioning himself as a friendly Conservative who can win the support of independent voters. But I’m not convinced he can.
9) Boris Johnson
A front-runner and hard-Brexiteer, Johnson is popular with Conservative Party members and independents for his jovial foppishness. But Conservative MPs are more skeptical. They, and some top civil servants, regard Johnson as too erratic. A recent BBC documentary following Johnson during his time as foreign secretary illustrated why he would be a risky proposition in No. 10 Downing St. Johnson simply appears too undisciplined and unfocused. I agree. Still, as a longtime pro-Brexit MP, Johnson is seen as the man to deliver a Brexit by the Oct. 31 deadline, including a “no-deal” hard Brexit. That makes him popular with the pro-Brexit Conservatives. My concern is that if a recession were to follow Brexit, Johnson’s eccentricity would make the Conservatives highly vulnerable to Jeremy Corbyn’s post-communist Labour Party.
8) Dominic Raab
Intense and dedicated, Raab formerly led the Brexit management negotiations team. He resigned from May’s government in rejection of her Brexit deal. Like Johnson, Raab would support a “no-deal” Brexit if necessary. However, he seems to be rather too-thin-skinned. He deserves a shot at one of the major ministries of state: the Treasury, Foreign Office, or Home Office. But he’s not ready for Downing Street.
7) Esther McVey
A former TV host, McVey is charismatic and would be popular with independent voters. But she remains inexperienced at the highest levels of government. She is open to a “no-deal” Brexit.
6) Mark Harper
Intelligent and notably more dedicated to standing on principle than some of his leadership contenders, Harper remains inexperienced and a little boring. Harper wants to renegotiate the terms of Brexit in order to rebuild consensus between the European Union and Britain.
5) Andrea Leadsom
A former leadership contender who bowed out to allow Theresa May to take power unchallenged in 2016, Leadsom is a reliable parliamentary figurehead for the Conservatives. She is less vociferous than Johnson but supports a “no-deal” Brexit if it comes to that. But I fear she would be unable to attract independent voters. She comes across as more of an enforcer than a prime minister.
4) Michael Gove
Extremely bright and well-regarded for his management of struggling government ministries, Gove is an undoubtedly impressive candidate. But he’s also scarred by his 2016 abandonment of Johnson during the latter’s leadership campaign. Back then, Gove was Johnson’s right-hand man until he announced he no longer believed Johnson was capable of leading successfully. This was probably the right determination, but it raised the legitimate question of Gove’s reliability as a politician. While a longtime pro-Brexit campaigner, Gove is more nuanced than Johnson on leaving the European Union. He says he’d support an extension from October, though not more than a few months, to see Brexit carried out via an improved deal.
3) Jeremy Hunt
Young, charismatic, and surprisingly resilient in his challenging tenure as health secretary between 2012-2018, Hunt is disliked by the media and the opposition parties but respected by most others. He supports Brexit via a negotiated deal that passes Parliament, but he is open to a “no-deal” hard Brexit if necessary. Hunt has found his feet as foreign secretary, showing he’s capable of leading the most important ministries.
2) Sajid Javid
The Home Office secretary and a self-made millionaire, Javid represents a much-needed rebranding of the Conservative Party away from the perception of a white, old Etonian talking shop, and into an aspirational, welcome-to-any, right-wing party. On the right of the party, Javid is passionate about Conservative views on the economy and social opportunity. This would put him in a strong position to challenge the overtly socialist Corbyn on terms appealing to independent voters. Javid is open to leaving the European Union without a deal but seems more concerned than most of the other contenders about reaching a compromise with the EU and Parliament.
1) Rory Stewart
A patriot who chose to serve in Iraq as a senior diplomat, an adventurer who walked across Afghanistan, Stewart’s quiet charisma and good character are above reproach. But Stewart also offers an intellectual honesty that would inspire Britons and encourage improved relations around the world. His original thinking can be seen in his Brexit plan to engage the public with “citizen assemblies” to find consensus for a Brexit deal that can pass Parliament. Stewart is resolutely opposed to a hard Brexit. While some Conservatives view Stewart as to the left of the party, I believe his focus on aspirational politics would stand him in good stead to lead the party to a new majority against Corbyn’s Labour.
My personal opinions aside, Johnson and Hunt are the bookies’ front-runners.
