Prime Minister Boris Johnson earned one win and one loss in two House of Commons votes on Tuesday. While both relate to Brexit, the loss is more important.
While the win secured Parliament’s approval to move Johnson’s withdrawal agreement with the European Union to further consideration, the loss prevents Johnson from moving that agreement on a rapid timetable that would allow Brexit to take place on its currently scheduled withdrawal date of Oct. 31.
So what now?
Responding to the loss, Johnson suspended the passage of the bill. Instead, Johnson suggested that he will push EU leaders to have them reject a parliamentary-mandated request for delaying Brexit beyond Oct. 31.
While the EU has not yet decided whether to accept the withdrawal request, it is expected to do so, most likely providing a new leave date of Jan. 31, 2020.
In that extension scenario, Boris Johnson is likely to call for a new general election. He has pledged that he will do everything in his power to make Brexit happen on Oct. 31. If, however, the EU refuses to provide an extension, Britain will withdraw from the EU without a deal on Oct. 31.
I suspect that an EU extension and Johnson’s push for a new election is the most likely occurrence. The degree of parliamentary disagreement over Brexit is now such that it may be impossible to gain closure on Brexit, one way or another, unless a new Parliament is elected.
