Kim Jong Un will likely soon announce the end of his moratorium on intercontinental ballistic missile tests.
Either that, or the North Korean leader is about to conduct a new ICBM or significant nuclear weapons test.
That’s my conclusion based on North Korean state media reporting of Kim Jong Un’s riding a white horse on the nation’s sacred Mount Paektu. Kim’s adventure was described by state media as an “event of weighty importance in the history of the Korean revolution.” Attending officials, the propagandists added, were “convinced that there will be a great operation to strike the world with wonder again and advance the Korean revolution a step forward.”
Why does riding a white horse on a mountain along the Chinese-North Korea border mean new missile tests?
First off, because of the symbolism.
While Mount Paektu has been used to name ballistic missiles, it is also central to the Kim dynasty’s Juche ideology. A rallying point for Kim Il-Sung’s struggle against imperial Japan, and the mythical (in the sense of both “legendary” and “false”) birthplace of Kim Jong Un’s father, Kim Jong Il, the mountain is supposed to serve as the physical incarnation of the Kim dynasty’s resolution and strength.
The seasonal timing here is also important. As state media reports, Kim’s ride coincides with the “first snow.” That recognition of a new season is designed to present this journey as a symbol for Kim’s new course. And while white represents peace and truth in Korean culture, it also serves to represent the supposed purity and perfection of Kim’s rule. The white horse thus serves as a manifestation of the leader’s perfection: Kim is never to be questioned, only to be followed.
Then there’s the political context.
While unnoticed by most, a separate state media report on Wednesday noted that “[North Korea] has already warned several times that [U.S.-South Korean] anti-[North Korean] rackets such as joint military exercises will make [North Korea] reconsider its important measures.”
What North Korea means by “important measures” is its suspension of ICBM tests.
Kim has not tested an ICBM since November 2017, but North Korea has been firing up its missile test rhetoric in recent months. Giving action to word, Kim has also ramped up short-medium range missile tests and his publicity of new capabilities.
There’s another factor here. Because Kim, who keeps a close eye on geopolitical events, will have noticed President Trump’s growing hesitation about using U.S. military force. In light of North Korea’s decision to collapse diplomatic talks in Sweden earlier this month, Kim is suggesting he believes he can increase pressure on Trump without reciprocal pushback.
How best to increase that pressure? With a new ICBM or significant nuclear weapons test.
