The Israel Defense Forces struck dozens of Iranian targets across Syria on Wednesday.
Its mission: to degrade and deter Iranian rocket and missile teams following Iranian rocket attacks against northern Israel on Tuesday. The attacks were launched from Syrian territory, which has long hosted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces of Iran.
First, let’s consider the context.
Iran views southern Syria as a key linchpin in its long term effort to weaken and, ultimately, destroy Israel. In response, Israel conducts regular covert action to disrupt Iranian forces and enablers supporting them. But Israel also occasionally takes direct military action to disrupt Iranian activities. That’s especially the case when IRGC officers are identified at the sites of weapons of mass destruction or are moving long-range missiles or high-payload warheads to threaten Israeli soil.
Still, the scale of these strikes sets them apart.
Alongside targeting numerous Iranian facilities and personnel, the IDF also hit Syrian air defense units, which had made the ill-advised decision to engage them. Reports suggest at least 23 were killed. So why the Israeli escalation?
Israel says it’s because the Iranians attacked first with the rocket strikes on Tuesday. But although Israel indeed applies a deterrent-overmatch calculation toward Iran (endeavoring to ensure that Iran knows any costs will outweigh its successes against Israel), the scale of these strikes leads me to believe there are other factors involved here. After all, these strikes will embarrass an already under-pressure Iranian regime and risk its lashing out with greater attacks. Israel does not want that.
Instead, as with the IDF strikes on a senior Palestinian-Islamic Jihad officer last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is using these operations for domestic political reasons, as well as legitimate national security ones. Netanyahu wants to give the Israeli Knesset — which will now seek to forge a new Israeli government — and the people a reason to select him as the presumptive leader of that new government.
Because Benny Gantz, the former uniform head of the IDF, is Netanyahu’s primary challenger for the premiership, the incumbent has a special reason to ensure that Israeli voters continue to believe he is their best bet for future security. It would be a stretch to say that Netanyahu is baiting Iran here, but he is making the case that he will roll the dice for Israel’s security if and when doing so is necessary.
Thus, this action is ultimately both about defending the Israeli state and supporting Netanyahu’s continued premiership.
