Coverage of a new 2016 poll from CNN has focused on findings that a majority of Americans don’t trust Hillary Clinton and don’t believe she shares their concerns. That’s bad news for her. But the survey also tells a lot about just who does, and who does not, like the former secretary of state. The in-the-weeds details of the survey not only reveal the deepest pockets of opposition and support for the Democratic frontrunner, they also suggest how she is faring in her effort to hold the coalition that elected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Overall, 46 percent of those surveyed said they have a favorable opinion, while 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion. But there are a lot of stories behind that.
First, men don’t like her. Among men, Clinton’s unfavorable rating is 58 percent, while her favorable rating is just 38 percent — a 20-point negative gap. Among women, Clinton is on the favorable side, with 54 percent having a favorable opinion of her, and 42 percent having an unfavorable view — a 12-point positive gap.
White people don’t like her. Among whites, 59 percent have an unfavorable impression of Clinton, while 38 percent have a favorable one — a 21-point negative gap. Nonwhites, on the other hand, like Clinton a lot: 65 percent have a favorable impression of her, while 31 percent have an unfavorable impression — a 34-point positive gap.
Young people like her. In what might seem to be a counterintuitive result, the only age group with a favorable impression of Clinton is Americans 18 to 34. Among that group, 55 percent have a favorable impression of Clinton, while 38 percent have an unfavorable opinion — a 17-point positive gap. In every other age group, a majority has an unfavorable opinion of her: 54 percent unfavorable among people 35 to 49; 55 percent unfavorable among people 50 to 64; and 56 percent unfavorable among people 65 and older. The negative gaps get bigger with increasingly older age groups: nine percent among people 35 to 49; 13 percent among people 50 to 64; 14 percent among 65 and older.
People who make more than $50,000 a year don’t like Clinton. Among that income group, 56 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, while 42 percent have a favorable one — a 14-point negative gap. Among Americans making less than $50,000 a year, the gap is reversed, although not as big: 53 percent have a favorable impression of Clinton, while 42 percent have an unfavorable impression — an 11-point positive gap.
People in the Northeast and people in cities like Clinton. People everywhere else don’t. In the Northeast, Clinton has a 57-41 favorable edge — a 16-point positive gap. In the Midwest, it is 55 percent unfavorable versus 42 percent favorable; in the South, it is 50-46 unfavorable; and in the West it is 53-42 unfavorable. In urban areas, Clinton has a 55-42 favorable rating, but in the suburbs she is 51-47 unfavorable, and in rural areas she is 61-34 percent unfavorable.
That might seem like Clinton has a lot of negatives, and indeed the poll contains so much trouble for Clinton that longtime Democratic politico Donna Brazile said, “Thank God it is June” — meaning there is still plenty of time for Clinton to fix her problems.
On the other hand, look at women, minorities, young people, and people who make less than $50,000. Those are the core building blocks of the Obama coalition, and Clinton is in good shape with them. That has to be heartening for Clinton strategists. The problem, of course, is that Obama attracted enough voters from other groups — men, whites, older people, and those making more than $50,000 — to win handily not once but twice. Whether Clinton can do that is a very open question.
