The European Union’s big three have awoken from their slumber to recognize that the 2015 Iran nuclear accord is dying.
Britain, France, and Germany made this admission Tuesday by triggering a dispute mechanism within that accord. Their action means that a joint commission will now have 15 days to resolve Iran’s refusal to limit its uranium enrichment.
It’s unlikely that the parties will be able to reach a serious resolution, and the EU knows it. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson evinced as much when he joined the announcement by adding that the deal is “flawed.” “If we’re going to get rid of it, let’s replace it, and let’s replace it with the Trump deal,” Johnson told the BBC. “President Trump is a great deal-maker, by his own account. Let’s work together to replace the [deal] and get the Trump deal instead.”
This is a pretty remarkable policy shift on the nuclear agreement.
Up until now, Western Europe’s three big powers had insisted that they were fully committed to the deal. Rather than respond to Iran’s breaches of the agreement with punitive responses, the EU tried to find ways to provide Tehran with increased sanctions relief.
So what changed all of a sudden? Put simply, the European powers have now recognized two obvious truths. First, U.S. sanctions against Iran have been effectively deterring European businesses from making investments in Iran for fear of losing access to the U.S. economy. This means the EU powers cannot give Iran the financial support it is demanding in return for remaining committed to the deal. Second, Iran’s breaches of the agreement pose an intolerable threat to international security. Iran’s ongoing crackdown against its own people also gives the EU domestic cover to act more forcefully.
Johnson’s recent reelection has also afforded him political space to align himself more closely with Trump. While the U.S. president is unpopular in Britain, Johnson is keen to strengthen the United States and Britain’s special relationship. And Iran’s malfeasance, along with the obvious weaknesses of the 2015 deal in terms of inspections protocols and ballistic missile limitations, give Johnson practical reason to move closer to Trump. Considering his openness toward the idea of involving China’s Huawei firm in Britain’s 5G network, Johnson might also believe that his new Iran stance can temper U.S. anger over his Huawei policy.
Next, Trump should continue to dangle the carrot, offering sanctions relief in return for an agreement from Iran concerning restrictions on its ballistic missile program, more intrusive inspections, and an open-ended compliance timeline. That approach would generate a deal worth signing — one that the EU would get behind.
