According to some housing-market soothsayers, we are now seeing a peak in housing construction and sales. Now, they aren’t talking about a downturn yet — just a peak. What’s going on? Does this mean a mild recession, or worse, lies around the corner? After all, housing is a major economic driver.

The housing tea leaf readers could be right, considering the slowing housing economy seems to be the result of higher-cost construction materials generated by trade-war tariffs, rising wages associated with tighter immigration policies, and higher-cost money, which is just what the Fed has been hoping for.