On Tuesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iranian enriched uranium stocks are approaching levels required to produce a nuclear weapon.
According to the IAEA, Iran has recently tripled its uranium stockpile and is just shy of that which would be required, if transferred into high enrichment form, for a nuclear weapon. The IAEA also complained on Tuesday that Iran has failed to provide access to three sites it believes may be being used for covert nuclear activities. Two of these sites are undeclared, and one was previously identified by the Israeli Mossad intelligence service as a covert nuclear facility. The IAEA has found uranium traces at that third site.
The Trump administration needs to provide urgent answers here. The United States has, thus far, refused to comment on the IAEA news, but considering the IAEA’s heavy reflex toward caution in its declaration, its statements here should be taken as highly credible. It is highly likely that the U.S. intelligence community has come to the same conclusion as the IAEA.
Context also matters greatly here. The IAEA’s findings fit with a growing pattern of Iranian escalation in regard to nuclear weapons. Taking advantage of the absence of effective snapback enforcement mechanisms, Iran has abandoned even basic conformity with the 2015 nuclear agreement. This abandonment is occurring to such a degree that even the European Union has taken notice.
But perhaps the greatest point of note here is what Iran’s escalation might mean for Israel.
After all, Israel regards the possible advent of an Iranian nuclear weapon not simply as a profound threat to its security but as the existential threat of a replicated Holocaust. And if Iran further enriches its now-significant uranium stockpile and moves toward weaponization by preparing to put fissile material in a viable warhead, Israel is likely to use force to stop it. Considering that Iran could do both these things within a short matter of months, we face a growing threat of a very serious near-term crisis.
President Trump should make a clear statement to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: We will not put our security and that of our allies in the custodianship of your lies. If Iran moves toward a nuclear weapon, it will be stopped.
