The U.S. and Colombia cannot ignore Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s blaming of them for the apparent assassination attempt against him on Saturday. That attack apparently involved explosive-laden drones being detonated in proximity to Maduro, who was unharmed.
In response, Maduro stated he had “no doubt” that President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia was culpable for the attack. Maduro also blamed the U.S. and the Venezuelan opposition promising “maximum punishment! And there will be no forgiveness.” On Sunday, President Evo Morales of Bolivia echoed Maduro’s claims on Twitter.
Although the accusations against Colombia and the U.S. are ludicrous, Venezuela’s free-falling economy and Maduro’s unstable mental state require preparation against any antics. This concern bears notice, in that Maduro may well have staged Saturday’s attack to justify an aggressive response, the whole point being to distract from his grotesque economic mismanagement and destruction of his nation’s former wealth.
What might Maduro do?
Well, for one, he might increase harassment of U.S. diplomats in Caracas. While that harassment ebbs and flows, the greatest threat here is from government-aligned militias that give Maduro a pretense of deniability. In response, President Trump should make clear that any attack on U.S. interests by any Venezuelan individuals will result in an outsized response.
Still, the more likely risk is Venezuela taking some kind of military action against Colombia. On paper, Venezuela’s air force is superior to Colombia’s, benefiting from more advanced fighter aircraft and superior numbers. However, its maintenance state and ability to conduct sustained operations is highly questionable. At the same time, Venezuela’s army is highly unlikely to be able to conduct any sustained offensive into Colombia. It ultimately lacks the logistical and intelligence capability to penetrate the difficult terrain that defines the border region and to survive inevitable Colombian counter-offensives. Colombia would also benefit from its far more adept intelligence, command and control, and targeting capabilities, and from U.S. intelligence support (and perhaps more support even than that).
That said, there is a known unknown quantity here: Russia. First off, Venezuela possesses advanced Russian air defense and mechanized provisions. Purchased by Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, those capabilities give Venezuela the means to create problems for Colombia. Second, as with Russia’s involvement in Syria, there’s also the possibility here that Vladimir Putin may use the current situation to expand his footprint in Latin America.
Fortunately, the U.S. has credible means of deterring and degrading these threats.
President Trump should warn Maduro that while the U.S. has no interest in a conflict, it stands with its Colombian ally. This warning would carry additional weight in that, sitting on the Caribbean Sea, Caracas is vulnerable to stand-off U.S. military engagement. The George H.W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups are also currently in the Atlantic, and while they shouldn’t be redeployed unless Maduro escalates (doing so could make matters worse), Trump should direct the Pentagon’s Southern Command to move assets in readiness for what would be the worse mistake of Maduro’s life.
Ultimately, though, Maduro cannot be ignored as a simple ranting idiot. He is a cornered animal, under increasing political pressure in relation to Venezuela’s ongoing economic implosion. And whether this drone incident was a Maduro fiction or a real attack, it portends new challenges for U.S. interests.
