The delegate math looks very good for Donald Trump, as my colleague David Freddoso lays out. As we try to count down the 284 bound delegates Trump still needs to win on bound delegates, it’s key to make a distinction.
Trump could win the nomination in one of three ways:
1) As Romney did, winning enough bound delegates to have a majority automatically on the first ballot, thus properly earning the title “presumptive nominee” before the delegation.
2) In a contested convention, on a second or third ballot, wrangling enough delegates to win the nomination. (This would be very scary for Trump, though.)
or
3) Falling short of 1,237 bound delegates, yet still winning on the first ballot thanks to the votes of unbound delegates.
This third option looks reachable for Trump even if he loses Indiana next week.
Again, Trump has 953 bound delegates. He needs 284 in remaining primaries to become the presumptive nominee.
If Trump wins Indiana next week, and pockets 51 to 57 of the state’s delegates, he’ll need 224 to 231 from the remaining states. If the smaller proportional states (Washington, Oregon, New Mexico) go badly for him, he’ll get about 25 from them, leaving him about 200 short. New Jersey will vote for Trump, leaving him about 140 to 150 delegates short. West Virginia will probably go for him, leaving Trump somewhere from 100 to 130 delegates short, with California remaining.
Trump could easily get 100 delegates in California, which has 172 total. He could maybe get 130 Californian delegates.
So, an Indiana win, and some good showings in other states, means Trump becomes the presumptive nominee on June 6, when the final states vote. But if Trump loses in Indiana, and does okay in the other states, he could certainly end up short by about 10 to 40 delegates. That’s where Pennsylvania comes in.
Al Weaver’s delegate math suggests Trump has about 39 unbound delegates on his side from Pennsylvania. This reinforces Phil Klein’s point a week ago that Trump’s real magic number is 1,200. If Trump finishes the primaries with 1,200 delegates, we still get a nominally contested convention, but on the first ballot, enough unbound delegates could vote for him so as to avoid a second ballot.
Avoiding a second ballot is crucial for Trump, because many of his bound delegates are people who don’t support him and who would want to vote against him once they are unbound — which, for most delegates, is on the second ballot.
In short: If Trump loses Indiana, but otherwise does well, he won’t have enough bound delegates to avoid a fight, but he may have enough to win on the first ballot.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
