Leading Dem pollster: Hagan holds on to her lead in North Carolina Senate battle

Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., holds a three-point lead over her Republican opponent, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, 46 to 43 percent, according to Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm.

Sean Haugh, the Libertarian candidate, carries five percent.

The latest survey, which was released Monday, marks the third month in a row where the Democratic incumbent has lead in the polls by three or four points, PPP noted.

“Both candidates remain unpopular in the closing stretch of the contest, but Hagan at least fares a little bit better with voters than Tillis does,” the group reported.

Forty-one percent “of voters approve of the job she’s doing to 50% who disapprove, for a -9 net approval rating. That’s not good but it puts her ahead of Tillis who just 37% of voters see favorably to 49% who have a negative opinion, for a -12 net favorability rating,” the report added.

Hagan has worked hard to distance herself from President Obama’s flagging approval numbers, even as Tillis continues to accuse her of being closely aligned with the White House and the president’s policies.

The PPP survey, which was conducted from Oct. 16-18, also found the following:

There’s nothing very surprising about where the candidates’ support is coming from. Hagan is up 49/37 with women, 85/4 with African Americans, and 61/27 with young voters. Meanwhile Tillis is up 49/42 with men, 55/34 with white voters, and 54/37 with seniors. Tillis is ahead 43/38 with independents but in an unusual finding for North Carolina politics, Hagan is getting the same share of the Democratic vote (81%) that Tillis getting of the Republican vote and if you do that as a Democrat in North Carolina you’re generally going to win given the party’s voter registration advantage in the state.

Hagan’s lead is slight, but it’s consistent.

Tillis has only two weeks to overtake Hagan before the Nov. 4 midterm elections.

“The North Carolina Senate race has always been close,” PPP president Dean Debnam said in a statement. “But Kay Hagan’s lead has been persistent for six months now.”

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